CORDIS Archive
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Keeping the greenhouse effect in checkThe potential that human activity has to bring about global climate change has enormous implications for energy production and consumption. One of the major challenges for the immediate future is to control emissions of carbon dioxide and to prevent any further intensification of the greenhouse effect.Carbon dioxide has been present in the Earth's atmosphere for millions of years, trapping some of the energy from sunlight to form a blanket of warm air. This so-called greenhouse effect is actually a natural phenomenon that has created and maintained Earth's warm and fairly constant surface temperature, producing conditions suitable for life.Increasing industrialisation, however, has produced an increasing need for energy, which has until now been obtained by burning fossil fuels. Unfortunately, doing this releases large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which measurements, taken over the last 50 years, show have already produced a small but measurable degree of global warming. If average surface temperatures were to rise by just a few degrees, experts agree, the effects could be devastating - as sea levels would inevitably rise by several centimetres, causing many low lying areas of the world to flood or even submerge. Current trendsA recent book, published on the eve of the crucial December 1997 Kyoto conference on Climate Change, provides a useful insight into energy production and its effect on the global environment. Energy and Climate Change is the work of the International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous body of 24 countries originally established within the framework of the OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development). The IEA has been carrying out research and analysis of the effects of energy production and consumption for over 20 years.The book starts with an IEA statement which summarises current thinking on the way our use of energy is affecting the global environment. The statement represents the agreed views of IEA energy ministers on key energy-related aspects of the Berlin Mandate, which was adopted in 1995, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Worst and Best Case ScenariosThe book then embarks on an exploration of what might happen in the future, presenting a 'worst case' and a 'best case' scenario. The worst case assumes that past trends will continue in the medium term and that there will be no decrease in economic activity or major policy initiatives to curb energy demand and emissions. Its conclusions are worrying: world demand for energy would grow steadily, rising by 46% between 1993 and 2010. This increase in demand would be met almost entirely by fossil fuels, that would account for almost 90% of total primary energy use in 2010. Global carbon dioxide emissions would increase by 50% between 1990 and 2010. The bulk of increases in both demand and C02 emissions is expected to occur in non-OECD countries. The best case scenario assumes that there will be internationally agreed reductions in energy use and related CO2 emissions, of at least 8% and 9%, respectively. Environmental costs and benefits are not included in the calculations which also assume that energy prices will remain broadly flat until 2010. The power sector is expected to be the single largest source of emissions reductions, accounting for around one half of the world total. In this model, OECD would account for more than 50% of the total emissions reduction. Reducing the ThreatThe rest of the book discusses the pros and cons of policies that should be adopted if we are to move towards the best case scenario by the year 2010. It stresses the importance of technological developments that would create advanced power plants, industrial processes, building and vehicles that would all be more energy efficient than their present-day counterparts. Although IEA Member countries have implemented a wide range of energy efficiency policies over the last twenty years, the book makes it very clear that the energy savings achieved so far fall very short of those required by 2010 to reduce CO2 emissions below their 1990 levels. The importance of worldwide co-operation in solving a global problem is also highlighted: developed and developing countries need to co-operate closely in the fight against undesirable and unpredictable changes in our climate.
A new review:
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Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Belgium 1997 Review Catalogue number 619721 1PPublished by the OECD/IEA ISBN 92-64-15620-8 , No. 49758 1997 Softback, 132 pp, FRF 170. |
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Fuelling the CO2 Debate CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion
Too hot to handle? Risiko Klima, A lot of hot air? Energy Technology Availability to Mitigate Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
The future's bright...? EUREC, The Future for Renewable Energy: Prospects and Directions, Prudent Energy Use Rational Use of Energy, Finnish Technology Cases, A helping hand for SMEs Coordination of activities in favour of SMEs, |
