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This review of achievements and future challengesin advanced communications was carried out in early 1998 by theHeads of all Units in DG XIII-B as a contribution to a strategic reassessment of RTD policy priorities in DG XIII and DG III. It therefore reflects the views of the senior officials who have been responsible for advanced communications RTD in DG XIII since 1988, but not necessarily of the Commission as a whole.
In its original form, it was made available to the ACTS Management Committee as input to further debate on the future of European RTD support in this area in the 5th F.P., and as a complement to the Independent Monitoring Report on the ACTS Programme. The entire review is included here to set the political context for the impACTS of the Programme, that are presented in the remainder of this Volume. |
A policy review by senior officials of the EuropeanCommission DG XIII, Directorate B January 1998 Summary With ISDN and GSM, Europe now has the best digital communications infrastructures in the world; interoperable and affordable because of collaboration in RTD and standardisation. Such collaboration between researchers and standards bodies gives Europe world dominance in mobile systems and digital television standards. The basis is also laid for Europe to lead in high-speed public network services and in next generation optical systems for the 21st century. With the support of all major European industries in EU RTD, all major European infrastructures support interoperable services: Europe leads in advanced service management and has a strong foundation for high-speed service interoperation. Economic and employment benefits have come from innovations in service use, in all industrial and service sectors. Over 2 million Europeans benefit from mobility and flexibility at work. Service integration for electronic commerce, and industrial consensus on deployment guidelines, will ensure open markets. Common standards for digital video services already allow over 1 million Europeans greater choice in entertainment.
EU-RTD co-operation has catalysed industrial restructuring and has facilitated new business start ups, which now have niche world leadership. However, the focus of EU RTD co-operation must now shift to co-operation within global alliances. Greatest value is now in the coherence and interoperability that can only be achieved through co-operation at the EU and global level; in a mid-to-longer term strategic focus on fewer, but larger projects; in industry-wide consensus to preserve European leadership in global system and market development; and in accelerating European business modernisation through European usage innovation.
Support for coherence and interoperability is both good industry policy and good European policy. Convergence presents new challenges for which a new balance between consensus and speed is required. For which new co-operation frameworks, including new players, are needed to ensure interoperability across systems and compatibility over time. Both the private and public sectors must be involved. No single company (or RTD project) can achieve this alone: only the combination of many efforts in a coherent strategic development can be effective.
Optical systems will complement and replace microelectronics in 10 years, so Europe must retain leadership in their development. The radio spectrum must be used more efficently, with better information coding and re-allocation of spectrum to the most efficient uses. Keyboard, screen, mouse systems will be replaced by voice interfaces and 3D imaging. The workplace itself will be the interface and the highest added value will be in its integrated design. For infrastructure and services, integrated system management will be key.
Europe's social and business system must become more competitive by embracing changes to maximise the broader benefits of technology development; through better integration of technology into working practices, and the development of electronic commerce for European small businesses. Creativity must be stimulated through innovations in financing, training and tool development; and collective commitments to sustainable growth must be made alongside development of low-cost access to essential new services. Key European achievements: 1988-1998
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1.1. World Leadership in Key Communications Infrastructure Developments Through Consensus and Standardisation |
| With ISDN and GSM, Europe now has the best digital communications infrastructures in the world; interoperable and affordable... |
Europe is now reaping the benefits of collaboration in common technology and standards developments in the 1980s and early 1990s. By 2000, full digitisation of Europe's Communications infrastructure will be achieved: GSM and Euro-ISDN are now the two most widely deployed standards for end-to-end digital communications in the world. They ensure a highly cost-efficient, seamlessly interoperable, high-performance and versatile infrastructure for voice and multi-media communications, including INTERNET access. And because of their wide deployment and the resulting economies of scale, they are affordable for most businesses and individuals. |
| ... because of collaboration in RTD and standardisation. |
The key to these successes was co-operation between Europe's telecommunications equipment developers in ETSI and other standards fora, and in collaborative research in the COST framework and in EU RTD framework programmes. For EURO-ISDN a "single-option set" of protocols, mandated by the European Council and negotiated in ETSI has enabled TransEuropean interoperation; a larger and faster market growth, and fast unit cost-reduction as mass-market applications have emerged - again stimulated by pilot and demonstration projects supported in the EU RTD programmes. |
| This gives Europe world dominance in mobile systems... |
For GSM, the set of coherent digital standards for cellular mobile communications is now taken up in over 100 countries and is by far the largest installed backbone on which 3rd generation mobile systems can be built. |
| ...and digital television standards. |
The third set of European digital communications standards for broadcast video services is also now in wide deployment. The Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB) standard again ensures coherence and interoperability between satellite, cable and atmospheric radio broadcasting. It builds on the world-wide standards for digital video coding (MPEG), to which European industry was a major contribution. Digital broadcasting is already available to over 10 million European households in 1998, and a full choice of services will be opened in all EU Member States by 2000. |
| The basis is laid for Europe to lead in high-speed public network services... |
Further benefits are yet to be fully realised. European collaboration on advanced switching and transmission for high-speed networks resulted in world standards for the ATM [1] system in 1992. This set of ambitious technical specifications has now been transformed into commercial products which have been tested for interoperability in TransEuropean networking. Commercial deployment of public ATM services will coincide with liberalisation of telecommunications infrastructure and service provision in 1998. It will provide a common technology platform for high-speed multi-media, digital video and INTERNET backbone developments. |
| ...and in next generation optical systems for the 21st century. |
Beyond this, the foundations have already been laid for the next major transition to optical communications. Transmission of information as laser-light pulses on optical fibres is already well established as the most performant and cost-effective technology for long distance communications: more information can now be sent over a single optical fibre than in the whole US backbone network of the 1980s: over 1 million video channels can be simultaneously transmitted by multiple wavelength systems over a single fibre. The basic technologies also now exist to avoid the expensive and time-consuming re-conversion of optical to electronic pulses for switching and routing. The full social and economic benefits of this European mastery of crucial next-generation technologies will not be realised until 2010, in the same way that we only now benefit from the investments in EU co-operation in the mid 1980s. |
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1.2. World Leadership in Open Service Provisioning |
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It is not enough to have world leadership in key areas of digital communications infrastructures. It is the services these infrastructures support that give benefit to businesses and individuals. These services must be of high quality, high performance and be integrated (i.e. be able to interwork). |
| In Europe, all major infrastructures support interoperable services. |
Through co-operation between Europe's telecommunications network operators, not only does Europe have wide deployment of all new digital platforms, but they all aim at interworking at the service level: GSM and Euro-ISDN can both be used as INTERNET access networks. GSM and ISDN work across the telephone network and over VSAT satellite links; ATM systems underpin both voice telephony, digital TV services and even High Definition Video services over satellite links. |
| ...Europe leads in advanced service management... |
The complexity of open and flexible service provisioning is rapidly increasing. This trend was recognised in the early 1990s, and European service providers have invested heavily in research and consensus development. As a result, Europe has world leadership in intelligent networks (essential for competitive service differentiation in a de-regulated market) and advanced service management (including VPNs): European systems are now the main basis for international consensus in the TINA-C forum [2], and the European-developed TMN system is the world-leader in this area. |
| ...and has a strong foundation for high-speed service interoperation. |
Co-operation between service providers is essential, both to share the costs and to ensure interoperation. For service provisioning on the ATM platforms for high-speed networks (including INTERNET backbones), the 18 major European Telecom service providers co-operated in interconnection trails through the JAMES project. They are now in a position to deploy their first sets of advanced services in a coherent way throughout the EU.This will again provide Europe with a strong and coherent base for further developments and continued world leadership. |
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Further multi-annual research co-operation of Europe's major network operators, is still vital. Only they are still able to take a long-term view of future service requirements. In fact, Europe's current world leadership in communications is a direct result of common commitment to 10-15 year development strategies in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which could only be undertaken with the combined resources of industry, network operators and the EU. |
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1.3. Coherent and Rapid Take-Up of Integrated Services |
| Economic and employment benefits have come from innovations in service use, in all industrial and service sectors... |
The real economic and employment benefits of advanced communications tools come from their widespread use in society, not from their development and provision itself. Therefore one of the greatest European achievement has been the coherent and rapid take-up of new integrated services in parallel with their development. Large multinationals are naturally at the forefront of innovations in use and have been active partners in EU RTD. They have catalysed fast deployment of business network solutions in the banking, insurance, retail, publishing, building, car manufacturing and aircraft maintenance sectors. However, European businesses have an enormous variety of needs which can now best be characterised as those necessary for flexible and mobile telework and for electronic commerce. |
| Over 2 million Europeans benefit from mobility and flexibility at work. |
Mobile, flexible and remote telework is important in modernising working practices and Europe's labour market, and in meeting people's wishes for more flexibility in their lives: popular interest in telework (at about 40% of the total working population), exceeds that of business managers. Telework therefore emerged in the early 1990s, as a key theme for service integration and take-up stimulation. As a result of RTD and other EU initiatives, notably by DG V, Europe has the fastest and most coherent deployment of integrated services for telework in the world: over 2 million Europeans and their businesses already benefit - with gains in competitiveness, quality of life and sustainability. The combination of services necessary for effective telework now involves voice and video telephony, fax, e-mail, re-routing, INTERNET and call forwarding, INTRANET access, information security services, call-centre and on-line technical support services: all of which are now available to most European businesses. |
| Service integration for electronic commerce, and industrial consensus on deployment guidelines, will ensure open markets. |
The combination of services necessary to business-to-business transactions and to electronic retail services; now known collectively as "electronic commerce", is the other area of service integration to which specific attention has been given. Building on the INTERNET and RTD in interactive video services and service integration, Europe has the necessary strengths in secure electronic payment, smart cards, business directory management and in industrial consensus to become the world's safest and most reliable electronic marketplace. The Memorandum of Understanding for Open Access to Electronic Commerce for Europe's SMEs now brings together over 100 major industrial groups and banks with SME and industry associations. It has allowed rapid industrial consensus to emerge on a variety of key interoperability issues, and has provided a clear mechanism for wide take-up of the technologies, service architectures and integrated services. |
| Common standards for digital video services already allow over 1 million Europeans greater choice in entertainment. |
Outside work and commercial services, the third most important area of integrated service is that of entertainment. The convergence of on-line, on-demand services with INTERNET access and broadcast TV has required determined efforts in standardisation and interoperability so that Europe's citizens are not to be faced with a confusing assay of incompatible systems. The focus has been on interoperability in on-line digital video services. The Digital Audio-Visual Council (DAVIC) was a European initiative; building on RACE RTD and the successes of DVB and MPEG standardisation. It now brings together over 150 major industrial companies, ranging from IT companies to broadcasters. It has world leadership in its area as the fast-track consensus route to ITU and ISO standardisation. |
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1.4. Restructuring Europe's Telecom Industries Through RTD Co-Operation |
| EU-RTD co-operation has catalysed industrial restructuring... |
At the beginning of the EU RTD in 1988, there were over 15 nationally-based telecommunications equipment manufacturers supplying publicly-owned national monopoly telecommunication network operators.Collaboration in RTD catalysed the industrial restructuring onto a European basis, with the emerging European-based multinationals being competitive in world markets. This is most directly visible in mobile communications, where initial co-operation in the COST framework, and in CEPT was reinforced through EU RTD support and ETSI, with the result that Europe has now 4 world competitive mobile equipment suppliers: NOKIA, ERICSSON, SIEMENS and ALCATEL. Growth of the telecoms activities of companies such as Pirelli, Bosch, SAT and GEC mean that they are also strongly placed on the world market for telecoms equipment. |
| ..and has facilitated new business start ups, which now have niche world leadership. |
However, open RTD co-operation has not only catalysed consolidation of Europe's industrial base. It has also provided a fertile environment for innovative business start ups: Snell and Wikox (UK) has become the world leader in digital broadcast technologies and systems: TELES (D) is a world leader in multi-point desk-top videoconferencing; IONA (IRL) is a key player in world developments of "object management" software; CHORUS (F) has developed distributed operating system architectures which are fulfilling the specific requirements of telecoms; Teleport Sachsen Anhalt (D) has grown to over 100 staff as an alternative infrastructure and integrated service provider to SMEs, and ITIS (F) is a world leader in interactive multimedia systems. Co-operation in EU RTD provided the initial impetus for these successes; opening doors for new entrants to share in common visions of communication developments. | Key challenges: 1998 - 2003
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2.1. Sustaining European RTD Co-Operation in an Increasingly Diverse and Competitive Environment |
| The focus of EU RTD co-operation must now shift to co-operation within global alliances.... |
The concepts of European RTD co-operation need to be re-defined in the new global marketplace, particularly in the area of communications and networking technologies. The 1980's model of encouraging co-operation between nationally-based companies needs now to be replaced by an equally essential incentive for co-operation between European multinationals, but in global alliances. |
| Greatest value is now in the coherence and interoperability that can only be achieved through co-operation at the EU and global level;... |
The added value of European co-operation must increasingly be recognised in the coherence and interoperability that can only be achieved at European level, and which is an essential prerequisite for consumer choice and confidence [3]. While in some perspectives we are now entering the era of media convergence, the underlying technology development is strongly divergent: the range and scope of technologies is expanding; the number of systems and services is multiplying and the number of research "players" is growing fast [4]. Competition will increase the need for co-operation in RTD to ensure coherence in infrastructures and services as the number of players multiplies and as the range of technologies and services expands. |
| ... in a mid-to-longer term strategic focus on fewer, but larger projects;... |
At the same time, commercial and competitive pressures are increased, focusing company research on shorter-term product and service differentiation at the expense of longer-term, next-generation, systems. However, it is essential that EU RTD support is not dispersed by these pressures for short-term advantage and differentiation. A scattering of research funds across a wide range of ephemeral and incoherent developments would be both ineffective and detrimental to Europe's longer-term interest. The solution is in a stronger mid-to-long term strategic focus; fewer, but larger projects; and greater emphasis on industry-wide consensus, rather than on marginal technology. |
| ...in industry-wide consensus to preserve European leadership in global system and market development;... |
In the early 21st century, European Information Society technology developments cannot be isolated from world developments. European initiatives must increasingly involve all major industrial interests in the world to facilitate global market development. European-based companies, depend on strategic alliances with US microprocessor developers and Asian VSLI fabrication plants to remain competitive, and on rapid growth of demand worldwide to realise economies of scale. It therefore no longer makes sense to subsidise purely European technology developments in the hope of giving European technology suppliers a competitive advantage. The benefits from EU RTD support must now be realised through preserving European leadership in global strategies for system and market development, including in system interoperability and standardisation. |
| ...and in accelerating European business modernisation through European usage innovation. |
Europe's broader competitive advantage (and employment success) will also increasingly come from coherence and rapidity in the take-up of Information Society technologies in Europe with a systemic modernisation of working and business practices. The two new archetypes for future project consortia should therefore be in global alliances for new system specification prototyping and validation; and major European usage pioneers in association with them. In either case, the priority for EU support must be to areas in which Europe is already strong and can dominate the global alliances involved. |
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2.2. Coherence, Consensus and Standardisation |
| Support for coherence and interoperability is both good industry policy and good European policy. |
The strength of collective European developments has now been demonstrated in the mobile and fixed communications areas and in digital video development. The focus on coherence, interoperability, standardisation, and consensus increasingly distinguishes EU initiatives from those in the US. This focus is also more than just a strategy for industrial competitiveness and open competition; it is a fundamental part of European policies for the single market and cohesion. |
Convergence presents new challenges...
...for which a new balance between consensus and speed is required. |
Convergence of communications, networking and broadcasting, driven by digital electronics technologies, will present major new challenges for Europe - notably because key aspects of INTERNET evolution are dominated by US companies which prefer to court confrontation rather than to embrace open standards and collaboration. INTERNET developments compete in all areas: from telephony to broadcasting. The solution will be to dominate developments by the collective weight of European initiatives and in their speed of realisation. To a degree, these are conflicting conditions; the more organisations involved in a collective initiative, the slower is progress. The right balance must be found; a sufficient commitment of major players, but a minimum "dead weight" of unnecessary participants and institutional constraint. Recent MoU initiatives have sought this balance with some success: DVB; DAVIC; TINA-C, NMF; OMG; and that on Open Access to Electronic Commerce. |
| For which new co-operation frameworks, including new players, are needed... |
The second key challenge is how to engage new players, with no tradition of co-operation and often no established RDT strategyor infrastructure: examples are cable TV companies; electricity power supply companies; water companies; major direct satellite broadcasters (Murdoch), INTERNET service providers (AOL, Point of Presence GmbH (D), Centre Internet européen (F), new "web-casters", and major retail/mail order groups. None of the existing three ICT programmes has succeeded yet in engaging the major new players in other than a sporadic way. New cross-industry frameworks are needed, to which strategic RTD can contribute [5]. |
...to ensure interoperability across systems and compatibility over time.
Both the private and public sectors must be involved. |
The third challenge is the speed of change. The pace of development in information processing will remain as fast as in the 1990s, but will be exceeded by the pace of development in communications capacity. However, while most companies can afford to renew their computers and software every 3-5 years, network operators will not be able to renew their physical infrastructures at this frequency. Interoperability between systems must therefore be complemented with interoperability over time - between past, present and future infrastructures. Backward and forward compatibility is an essential protection for everyone's investment, but requires continuity and longer-term strategic visions than are the current practice in ICT developments. This is not just a problem for the private sector: frequency allocation and use is a Government responsibility and cannot be changed easily or frequently. |
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2.3. The New Technological Frontiers |
Optical systems will complement and replace microelectronics in 10 years;...
... so Europe must retain leadership in their development. |
While microelectronics capabilities will continue to increase switching and routing capabilities by a factor of 10 in the next 5 years, all-optical systems will offer a 100-1000 fold increase in about the same time horizon. However, the change to end-to-end optics will fundamentally change the architectures and economics of communications and networking. The transition will not therefore be one of gradual transition, but rather of parallel development and eventual substitution. For this reason Europe's current world leadership in communications systems design and management will only be preserved by investment now in the end-to-end optical communications systems for 2010. Pan-European transparent photonic networks will form the backbone of the European Information Infrastructure, providing the necessary integration, interoperability and bandwidth for the new services and applications, throughout Europe. |
| The radio spectrum must be used more efficently, with better information coding and re-allocation of spectrum to the most efficient uses. |
Radio Spectrum is the only finite resource for future communications systems. However, technology development can make a major contribution to the efficiency of its use. For example, signal compression techniques now allow 20-times more useful information (video image, etc.) to be transmitted in a fixed bandwidth than 10 years ago. The growth in demand for mobility and wireless connection, whether to terrestrial or satellite infrastructures, will require both liberation of spectrum use from traditional defence and analogue broadcasting uses, and further investment in technologies for more efficient spectrum use. |
| Keyboard, screen, mouse systems will be replaced by voice interface and 3D imaging. |
Basic microelectronics and display technologies are now ready for the next major change from the keyboard/screen/mouse paradigm of the late '80s to the voice-controlled portable communicator; the mobile phone as a wearable fashion accessory, and to radical new office designs taking into account the ergonomics and psychology of office-work and team-work. This transition will require substantial further technology development for voice interface engineering [6]; for very-low power displays; ultra-light batteries and wireless recharging; for 3D image and movement recognition, and for 3D display. |
| The workplace itself will be the interface and the highest added value will be in its integrated design. |
Beyond this, and as these technologies are embedded into the work environment, increased investments will be required in research on workplace and workprocess engineering. The highest added value will be in overall system design and integration, and in workplace design. Europe must achieve world leadership in these new areas. |
| For infrastructure and services, integrated system management will be key. |
The same challenge arises in managing infrastructure and services.This "integrated system" design and control will be the new summit of the technology pyramid for an Information Society. The regions and organisations which lead at the top will dictate strategic directions and will always be able to add value to other innovations. European industry is well placed to retain world leadership in the ever more complex environment of global infrastructure and service management. |
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2.4. Social and Societal Challenges |
Europe's social and business system must become more competitive...
... by catalysing change to maximise the broader benefits of technology development;... |
In a global economy, the competitiveness of European information and communication systems is no longer enough for our prosperity; the competitiveness of European social, employment, business and innovation systems must be assured. This will require rethinking work and employment to enable people to add more value; to be more creative, and to respond more flexibly to changing demand. The challenge is therefore one of catalysing change in society to maximise the broader benefits of technology developments. |
| ...through better integration of technology into working practices;... |
New methods of work will increase employment when they contribute to greater flexibility in time, place and organisation; when they reduce investment and fixed-cost thresholds for new job creation and for participation in work; and when they allow entirely new kinds of work to become financially sustainable. Effective use and further development of technologies and systems for flexible and mobile telework are essential to all three goals, and is a part of the new Key Action proposed for the 5th F.P.. However, this technology development must emerge organically from innovation in work organisation; it cannot be accessible only to a tiny minority of technology enthusiasts which are prepared to adapt their work to fit what the technology can do. The challenge is how to engineer the partnership between "main-stream" employers/employees and technology developers, alongside the "social dialogue" which is also essential to changes in working practice. New forms of co-operation are needed. |
| ...and the development of electronic commerce for European small businesses. |
In business, the new global marketplaces of electronic commerce will generate new trade patterns, and new growth. Europe will only benefit fully if its millions of small businesses have access, get involved and trust the new environment. The challenges are therefore ones of awareness, access and trust. Again the technology platforms must match European small business practice (not just that of US multinationals) and must interoperate both within the EU and globally.While the techniques of consensus development from the communications area are transferable, the constituency of participants in EU initiatives in this area will have to be broadened to the financial services, retail and small business sectors. |
| Creativity must be stimulated through innovations in financing, training and tool development,... |
Europe has enormous untapped potential for artistic and commercial creativity, associated with our cultural heritage and diversity: its better stimulation is essential to prosperity and jobs in a global information society. However, stimulating creativity is the most difficult challenge. It must be tackled from the perspectives of financing - liberating people to be creative and by making the tools affordable; of training, particularly in the mastery of use of new multi-media, 3D, computer graphics and virtual-reality technologies; and in further technology development to make these (and other new technologies) more efficient, easier to integrate and to use. This latter point is a Key Action to the Commission's proposal for 5th F.P. |
| ...and collective commitments to sustainable growth must be catalysed... |
An Information Society can also be an ecologically, socially and economically sustainable society; but only if the right policy choices are made, the right technology developments dominate, and all businesses adopt new technologies in the right way. A new focus on decentralisation and de-materialisation is essential, but is very difficult for any Government or business alone to achieve. A collective commitment in a public-private strategic alliance for sustainability is probably the only way forward, but will require sustained stimulation and technology development support. |
| ...alongside development of low-cost access to new essential services. |
Europe's ageing society will come to depend on widely available care services. The challenge we face is to cut the cost of services (to make them affordable by individuals and Governments) while increasing their quality and availability. Effective use of information technologies is probably the only way these goals can be met, but the focus must shift from development of expensive high-end technologies for the immediate needs of wealthy multinationals to acceleration of the cost-reduction cycle for the "universal service" systems which will be required in 10 years time. |
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