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 olicy-makers were once content to leave the long-term future alone. Not any more, to judge by the speed with which government after government has recently taken up technology foresight. The Futures conference, which in February marked the culmination of the first European-level foresight project, is the latest contribution to an expanding foresight culture - and a highly successful one. Hosted by IPTS, one of the eight institutes of the Commission's Joint Research Centre, the conference attracted more than 650 high-level delegates.
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Light at the end of the tunnel? The Future's project examined the likely impact of political, economic and social change on technology, competitiveness and employment. |
Missing dimension
Foresight is the process of characterising contemporary change so that today's policies are informed by developments anticipated in the next ten to 20 years. Normally sponsored by national governments, such exercises draw on a broad community of experts, and also provide a platform for forging new relationships between government, science and industry.
Futures, however, has been cast in a rather special mould. "Essentially, it arose because we at IPTS found that existing foresight exercises overlooked some crucial European issues," says Gustavo Fahrenkrog, its project manager. Futures has therefore focused specifically on issues of Europe development - especially deregulation, the euro and EU enlargement - alongside the big issues, such as globalisation and information society, that traditionally occupy foresight exercises.
The objective was to work out the implications that the combination of these drivers is likely to have for technology, competitiveness and employment over the next ten years. To do so, the project formed a series of expert panels involving nearly 200 representatives from industry, academia and government. After a structured 18-month process involving brainstorming, seminars, workshops and a mid-term conference, they have produced 12 substantial reports.
Competing on quality
At the centre of the picture that emerges stand the high-technology industries, the collective lynchpin of a fledgling European information society. Nurturing innovation potential is viewed as crucial, so pride of place goes to the biotechnology and information-society industries, including notably computing and electronic commerce.
EU strengths are identified in these areas - agro-food and mobile telecoms, for example. But so too are worrying weaknesses, which tend to retard innovation in the same areas. Of great concern is the gap between what the industries propose and what the public appears willing to accept. To close it, Futures advises encouragement for improved social and political mechanisms to build consensus between public, industry and government.
In ICT-reliant industries, there is already a growing labour-market gap between demand for ICT skills and their supply. Policy-makers are aware of the problem, but shortages are likely to grow and to spill out into other technology fields. The implications for education and training are clear.
On the demographic front, the differentiation that social institutions are currently undergoing comes under scrutiny. The total number of households, for example, is growing twice as fast as the population. The Futures reports roundly reject an interpretation of such trends as social fragmentation. Instead, they talk of a 'mosaic society', allowing for the possibility of social coherence.
Futures reads all these signs as pointers to an imperative - that Europe's competitiveness in the 21st century must be built on a foundation of innovative capabilities. It envisages a Europe that competes first on know-how, quality and performance and only second on price. The capacity to integrate new technologies into high-quality, innovative goods and services and to offer 'mass customisation' will be critical.
Futures' future
In contrast with most national foresight programmes, Futures was not commissioned. In fact, IPTS took something of a gamble in launching it. "We were looking for a flagship project, funded from our own budget, to raise IPTS' profile. We took a calculated risk that it would be of interest," says Ken Ducatel, one of the project leading team members.
The gamble paid off, and the project has already created a great deal of interest. "We have received many requests for follow-up work," says Ducatel. These have come from Commission policy-makers working on early drafts of the next Research Framework Programme, other EU institutions - as well as countries in central and eastern Europe, and even in Latin America, looking for help in designing their own foresight programmes.
To build on this success, the Futures team has already started working on a successor project, due for launch within a year. The aim is to reinforce the European foresight perspective, refining more quantitative estimates of cross-impacts, especially in relation to enlargement, and getting to grips with the socio-economic implications of the emerging eEurope.
Contact
- K. Ducatel, European Commission
Joint Research Centre
IPTS
Tl. +34 95 448 8489
Fx. +34 95 448 8359
E-m. ken.ducatel@jrc.es
- The full texts of the Futures panel's final reports are
available at http://futures.jrc.es/
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FORESIGHT STUDY
