Objective A programme of research is described which will revolutionise the mathematical formulation of comprehensive Earth-System models, potentially leading to a step-change improvement in the reliability of our predictions of climate change, both globally and regionally. This programme of research is intended to make climate simulations more consistent both with the multi-scale nature of climate, and with related scaling symmetries of the partial differential equations which govern climate. This will be achieved by moving away from the traditional deterministic approach to the closure problem in computational fluid dynamics, and towards a more novel description of physical processes near and below the truncation scale of climate models, using contemporary nonlinear stochastic-dynamic mathematics. A detailed technical account of how this will be achieved in given in the full proposal. Leveraged on the proposer's many contacts in Europe and around the world, the aim of the proposed research is to produce the world's first Probabilistic Earth System Model. The consequences are enormous: a comprehensive climate model with reduced biases against observations, a model which will be capable of producing estimates of uncertainty in its own predictions, and a model which can make use of emerging energy-efficient probabilistic processor hardware. key to practical success as we approach the era of the exascale supercomputer. The development of the prototype Probabilistic Earth-System Model will open a new era of international scientific collaboration on climate model development, and has the potential to influence climate policy, on mitigation, adaptation and on geoengineering, a the highest governmental and intergovernmental levels. Fields of science natural sciencesphysical sciencesclassical mechanicsfluid mechanicsfluid dynamicscomputational fluid dynamicsnatural sciencesmathematicspure mathematicsmathematical analysisdifferential equationspartial differential equationsengineering and technologyelectrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineeringelectronic engineeringcomputer hardwaresupercomputersnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changesnatural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Topic(s) ERC-AG-PE10 - ERC Advanced Grant - Earth system science Call for proposal ERC-2011-ADG_20110209 See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-AG - ERC Advanced Grant Host institution THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD EU contribution € 2 137 014,00 Address WELLINGTON SQUARE UNIVERSITY OFFICES OX1 2JD Oxford United Kingdom See on map Region South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Oxfordshire Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Principal investigator Timothy Noel Palmer (Prof.) Administrative Contact Gill Wells (Ms.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Total cost No data Beneficiaries (1) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD United Kingdom EU contribution € 2 137 014,00 Address WELLINGTON SQUARE UNIVERSITY OFFICES OX1 2JD Oxford See on map Region South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Oxfordshire Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Principal investigator Timothy Noel Palmer (Prof.) Administrative Contact Gill Wells (Ms.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Total cost No data
