Objectif The A2C2 project treats two major challenges in climate and atmospheric research: the time dependence of the climate attractor to external forcings (solar, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic), and the attribution of extreme climate events occurring in the northern extra-tropics. The main difficulties are the limited climate information, the computer cost of model simulations, and mathematical assumptions that are hardly verified and often overlooked in the literature.A2C2 proposes a practical framework to overcome those three difficulties, linking the theory of dynamical systems and statistics. We will generalize the methodology of flow analogues to multiple databases in order to obtain probabilistic descriptions of analogue decompositions.The project is divided into three workpackages (WP). WP1 embeds the analogue method in the theory of dynamical systems in order to provide a metric of an attractor deformation in time. The important methodological step is to detect trends or persisting outliers in the dates and scores of analogues when the system yields time-varying forcings. This is done from idealized models and full size climate models in which the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are known.A2C2 creates an open source toolkit to compute flow analogues from a wide array of databases (WP2). WP3 treats the two scientific challenges with the analogue method and multiple model ensembles, hence allowing uncertainty estimates under realistic mathematical hypotheses. The flow analogue methodology allows a systematic and quasi real-time analysis of extreme events, which is currently out of the reach of conventional climate modeling approaches.The major breakthrough of A2C2 is to bridge the gap between operational needs (the immediate analysis of climate events) and the understanding long-term climate changes. A2C2 opens new research horizons for the exploitation of ensembles of simulations and reliable estimates of uncertainty. Champ scientifique natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdatabasesnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsdynamical systemsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Thème(s) ERC-AG-PE10 - ERC Advanced Grant - Earth system science Appel à propositions ERC-2013-ADG Voir d’autres projets de cet appel Régime de financement ERC-AG - ERC Advanced Grant Institution d’accueil COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES Contribution de l’UE € 1 491 457,00 Adresse RUE LEBLANC 25 75015 PARIS 15 France Voir sur la carte Région Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Paris Type d’activité Research Organisations Contact administratif Cecilia Garrec (Ms.) Chercheur principal Pascal Yiou (Dr.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée Bénéficiaires (1) Trier par ordre alphabétique Trier par contribution de l’UE Tout développer Tout réduire COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES France Contribution de l’UE € 1 491 457,00 Adresse RUE LEBLANC 25 75015 PARIS 15 Voir sur la carte Région Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Paris Type d’activité Research Organisations Contact administratif Cecilia Garrec (Ms.) Chercheur principal Pascal Yiou (Dr.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée
