Objective
A major goal in biodiversity conservation is to predict responses of biological populations to environmental change. To achieve this, we must identify early warning signals of the demographic changes that underlie population declines. Some studies have achieved phenomenological prediction of sudden changes, but recent advances that link trait-based information with demography hint that a mechanistic understanding is within reach. I propose to develop a predictive framework by identifying the demographic and phenotypic statistics that can be used as early warning signals of demographic regime shifts. I have investigated links between ecological and evolutionary processes in changing environments for many years, and I will now build on this experience to develop a predictive theory. First, we will analyse unique long-term individual-based datasets from nine mammal species. The species represent a continuum of life histories and environmental conditions, and some of them show population dynamic regime shifts. Second, we will construct trait-based demographic models of each system and perturb key parameters to simulate population and trait dynamics under multiple environmental scenarios. The simulations will yield time-series data from which we will estimate demographic and phenotypic statistics. We will test the ability of these statistics to predict demographic changes using a novel decision algorithm framework. Finally, using two laboratory microcosms, we will experimentally test the ability of these statistics to predict population responses to environmental change. This project will exploit nine unique natural systems to identify early warning signals of population change and test these on two experimental systems. Results will provide much-needed predictive insight into how wildlife populations respond to environmental change, and will be of highest importance to management of wildlife populations whether they are of conservation concern, invasive, or exploitable.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences sociology demography
- natural sciences biological sciences evolutionary biology
- natural sciences biological sciences biodiversity conservation
- natural sciences biological sciences ecology ecosystems
- natural sciences biological sciences zoology mammalogy
You need to log in or register to use this function
We are sorry... an unexpected error occurred during execution.
You need to be authenticated. Your session might have expired.
Thank you for your feedback. You will soon receive an email to confirm the submission. If you have selected to be notified about the reporting status, you will also be contacted when the reporting status will change.
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
ERC-2013-StG
See other projects for this call
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Host institution
8006 Zurich
Switzerland
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.