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Zawartość zarchiwizowana w dniu 2022-12-23

Development of computerized systems for predicting the radiological impact of accidents to aid off-site emergency management including models

Cel

Scientific cooperation between EC and CIS institutes in this area will be undertaken using, as a platform, the Decision Support System (DSS) which is being developed within the framework of the Radiation Protection Research Action of the CEC. The broad objectives of the collaborative programme are to improve the models included in the DSS; to include additional models to make the DSS comprehensive; to broaden the applicability of the DSS to the CIS as well as the EC; to implement the DSS in institutes in the CIS; and to use data following the Chernobyl accident both to improve and validate models included in the DSS.

Data assimilation techniques for real time systems

The effective use of both model predictions and monitoring data in decision support systems is essential for the realistic estimation of the potential radiological impact of an accidental release and the introduction of the most appropriate countermeasures. Various techniques exist or are being developed for this purpose with varying degrees of success. To further support methodological developments in this area, and at least partially, validate the techniques, investigations are needed in the following areas:

the compilation of a coherent data base containing accredited radiological measurements made in the short term following the Chernobyl accident

the testing and validation of the techniques used to assimilate model predictions and monitoring data, including quantification of their uncertainties

the optimisation of environmental monitoring strategies to reduce uncertainties in radiological predictions during the early stages of an accident.

Effectiveness of countermeasures involving the movement of people

The voluntary or forced movement of people before, during and after an accidental release of radioactive material is associated with benefits and harm. Their evaluation and quantification are an important input to well considered judgements on the use of evacuation as a countermeasure. Evaluation of the practical experience gained during and after the Chernobyl accident has the potential to provide both qualitative and quantitative insights and information that may be useful for future planning. Investigations of the following topics are seen as most profitable in this respect:

the compilation of a consistent data base which, chronologically, includes information on the introduction and withdrawal of early countermeasures, both temporally and spatially; on the response and behaviour of the population to these countermeasures; on the resources, manpower and time required for their introduction; and on the dose distributions in the affected population

the development of methods, simulation models and computer programs for the DSS which enable dose distributions to be estimated reliably for population groups being evacuated or relocated

the testing, validation and further improvement of countermeasure and dose assessment models included in the DSS using the Chernobyl data.

Agricultural countermeasures

Countermeasure models are being developed and implemented in the DSS for predicting the radiological and economic impact of banning milk and milk products following an accident. These models need to be extended to be applicable to all potentially important agricultural foodstuffs. The main topics to be addressed are:

the development of a comprehensive and consistent data base including information, for each agricultural countermeasure, on its implementation and withdrawal; the reduction of activity in agricultural media; potential dose saved; resources, manpower and time required; economic cost; behaviour of the affected population; doses to workers; effect on agricultural productivity, etc

the testing, validation and improvement of the agricultural countermeasure models and related parts of economic models implemented in the DSS.

Contamination of surface water systems

Accidental contamination of surface water systems may occur by directly or indirectly following an accidental release to the atmosphere through run-off from catchment areas over which released material has been deposited. Prediction of the transfer of radioactive material to water supplies following an accident is essential for their effective control. The models developed in the former Soviet Union for this purpose will be integrated into the DSS and, in the first instance, should be adapted so that they are applicable to European river basins. The implemented models should have the following capabilities both generally and specifically in terms of their application:

to describe the run-off of deposited radioactive material into water systems and their subsequent transport

to estimate the radiological impact and the effectiveness of different countermeasures for all significant exposure pathways.

Operation of decision support systems

The first prototype version of the DSS will be completed in the autumn of 1992. It will include the key features of the system but will not at that stage, however, be coupled on line to other information networks nor tested during emergency exercises or case studies. To further develop the system with respect to actual operational needs and requirements, it is to be

installed in institutes of the concerned republics where it will be adapted to specific national requirements and

coupled to the respective national hydrometeorlogical and radiological information systems.

The experience gained from the implementation of the system will be used to improve its subsequent transportability.

Temat(-y)

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Zaproszenie do składania wniosków

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System finansowania

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Koordynator

Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH - Technik und Umwelt
Wkład UE
Brak danych
Adres

76344 Eggenslein - Leopoldshafen
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