FLARECASTProject ID: 640216
Financé au titre de:
Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting
Détails concernant le projet
Space weather can have detrimental, and in some cases catastrophic, effects upon a multitude of technologies on which we depend as part our daily lives. Adverse space weather is now known to result from solar flares and coronal mass ejections released from the turbulent and highly complex magnetic fields of active regions. Understanding how active region magnetic fields evolve and produce these events is therefore of fundamental importance to developing accurate and reliable space-weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities.
We therefore propose to develop an advanced flare prediction system (Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption Forecasting; FLARECAST) that is based on automatically extracted physical properties of active regions coupled with state-of-the-art flare prediction methods and validated using the most appropriate forecast verification measures.
Active region properties, such as area, magnetic flux, shear, magnetic complexity, helicity and proxies for magnetic energy, will be extracted from solar magnetogram and white-light images in near-realtime using advanced image-processing techniques. Once active region properties have been extracted, they will be correlated with solar flare activity and used to optimize prediction algorithms based on statistical, unsupervised clustering and supervised learning methods. This will enable us to validate our image processing and flare prediction algorithms before launching a near-realtime flare forecasting service, the first of its kind in the world.
FLARECAST will therefore form the basis of the first quantitative, physically motivated and autonomous active region monitoring and flare forecasting system, which will be of use to space-weather researchers and forecasters in Europe and around the globe.
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 371 063,75
Panepistimiou Ave. 28
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 407 731,25
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 241 375
VIA BALBI 5
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 135 500
PIAZZALE ALDO MORO 7
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 211 000
RUE MICHEL ANGE 3
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 224 583,75
RUE GEORGES CLEMENCEAU 15
91405 ORSAY CEDEX
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 569 162,50
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 136 908,75
EX1 3PB EXETER
Contribution de l'UE: EUR 119 326,25
SUTHERLAND BUILDING COLLEGE STREET
NE1 8ST NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE