Objective
A major problem in understanding complex nonlinear geophysical systems is to determine which processes drive which other processes, so what the causal relations are.
Several methods to infer nonlinear causal relations exist, but often lead to different answers, often perform hypothesis testing on causality, need long stationary time series, can be misleading if an unknown process drives the processes under study, or, if a numerical model is used, reflect model causality instead of real-world causality. Furthermore methods that use the governing evolution equations directly lead to intractable high-dimensional integrals.
In this proposal I will tackle these problems by firstly embedding causality into a Bayesian framework, moving from testing causality to estimating causality strength and its uncertainty in a systematic way. Knowledge from several causality methods can be combined, new knowledge can be brought in systematically, and time series can be short. Furthermore, new knowledge can be incorporated into the existing knowledge basis, and
several methods can be combined in a consistent manner. Secondly, a new formulation to infer causal strength exploring evolution equations that avoids high-dimensional integrals will be explored. Thirdly, numerical models are combined with observations by exploring fully nonlinear data assimilation to study real-world causality.
I will test the new techniques on simple models and then apply them to a high-resolution model
of the ocean area around South Africa where the Southern Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean meet.
This area plays a crucial role in the global circulation of heat and salt by bringing warm and salty Indian Ocean
water into the Atlantic in a highly turbulent manner. The techniques allow to infer what sets this interocean transport,
the turbulent local dynamics or the global climate-related dynamics, crucial for understanding
the functioning of the ocean in the climate system.
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2015-AdG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
RG6 6AH Reading
United Kingdom
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.