Objectif Task description The purpose of the research is to develop the essential ingredients of a decision supporting system which has the potential for wide scale application in Europe. The structure of the system will be modular in form with separate components corresponding to data input facilities, data banks, atmospheric transport, environmental and economic models, logic routines, output facilities, etc. The modular structure of the system and the detailed parameterization of calculational procedures will provide great operational flexibility which will enable the system to cope with differing: amounts and quality of measured and radiological data; site and source term characteristics; national regulations, emergency plans, responsibility structures; needs of the user. In addition to its role in providing decision support in the case of a real emergency, the structure and design of the system will be such that it can be used as a powerful tool in training of decision makers, in exercising emergency plans and as a means for gaining experience with emergency plans and recommendations for long term countermeasures and recovery actions. The activities in the first project period 1990 to 1991 will be concentrated on the following areas: Project 1 (KfK) Development of a real time system for aiding decisions about emergency actions in the early phase of an accident, such as evacuation and sheltering. Besides the estimation of radiological quantities, the modelling of emergency actions, and the evaluation and ranking of alternative actions by an expert system, emphasis is given to the installation of an operational system as framework for a comprehensive decision support system. Project 2 (GSF) In the framework of a preceding research programme a real time emergency dose prediction system including countermeasures has been developed. This computer code has been designed for adaption to the different living habits, climatic and agricultural conditions in the different regions of the European Community. It is intended to continue this work with the aim to integrate the existing code into the framework of the decision support system under development. Project 3 (CEA and NCSR Demokritos) A code system calculating the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants will be developed, based on the MC31 code which solves the diffusion-advection equation by Monte-Carlo techniques, and the ADREA code, which is a 3-dimensional time-dependent transport code, suitable for complex terrain. Project 4 (ENEA) The phase of the evaluation of input parameters for meteodiffusive codes plays a very important role during a run of an emergency system, so it is essential to develop a software package to provide in real time those input parameters which are neither directly measured nor available on the database, and to format the data as required by the specific input files of the models. In particular, this package should include several routines to estimate input model parameters like atmospheric stability category; mixing layer depth; scaling parameters (friction velocity, Monin-Obukhov length, etc.). In the present research project, the feasibility of using stochastic methods (grey box models) for the local prediction of some of the above mentioned parameters will be studied. Project 5 (Risoe): A portable atmospheric dispersion module will be created, based on the combination of our mesoscale puff model RIMPUFF and an updated version of the diagnostic, nonhydrostatic flow model LINCOM. A functional demo-system will be established. Project 6 (ICSTM) Under the postChernobyl programme a computer model, 3-DRAW, has been developed in a preliminary form as a tool to simulate atmospheric dispersal and deposition out to continental scale distances, in the context of real time assessment (following a nuclear accident). This project will concentrate on validation and improvement by addressing: the performance and accuracy of the model in critical meteorological situations such as frontal systems; improved parameterization, particularly with respect to conditions in the boundary layer, and their assessment from available meteorological data (collaboration with ENEA here); the practical use of the model in an emergency situation including its combined use with measurements to optimize and update predictions; investigation of potential benefits of advances in computer technology, specifically through parallel processing techniques. Project 7 (SMHI) An extension of a 3-dimensional Eulerian mesoscale dispersion model to the European scale will be performed, for the use as an operational real time model. A fractal model of air pollution based on the theory of radom fractal pulses has been developed and used in northern Italy. The input values were the fractal features of the atmospheric phenomenon and intensity of pollution estimated for each county from an empirical decay function which fit the time dependence of pollution after the Chernobyl accident. This was done for each radionuclide. The method was checked against previously obtained results and found to be in good agreement. An improved set of parameters was also incorporated into the fractal model with different curves describing the time dependence of pollutant intensity in different countries. Champ scientifique natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwarenatural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdatabasesnatural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligenceexpert systemsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesenvironmental sciencespollutionnatural scienceschemical sciencesnuclear chemistryradiation chemistry Programme(s) FP2-RADPROT 7C - Specific multiannual research and training programme (Euratom) in the field of radiation protection, 1990-1991 Thème(s) Data not available Appel à propositions Data not available Régime de financement CSC - Cost-sharing contracts Coordinateur UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI PAVIA Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Via A.Bassi 6 27100 PAVIA Italie Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée
