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Modelling of the impact on ozone and other chemical compounds in the atmosphere from airplane emissions

Ziel

The lower stratosphere/upper troposphere are areas of importance for ozone depletion, climate and interaction between chemistry and climate through ozone. Our knowledge of how chemical processes in general, and aircraft emissions in particular, affect the distribution of ozone and other key compounds in these regions is limited. However, with the projected large increase in future aircraft operations and thus emissions, studies of future impact on lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric chemical composition is needed. In order to address these scientific issues the overall objective for the AEROCHEM proposal is the impact of past, present and future emissions from both subsonic and supersonic aircrafts on upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone. The project will contribute to a better scientific knowledge of the processes controlling ozone in height regions where ozone change could contribute significantly to climate change.

The basic tool in this study will be 3-D CTMs (Chemical Transport Models) which have been developed by the
participating groups, and where the emphasis is on processes affecting transport and chemistry in the lower
stratosphere and upper troposphere. The models will have different formulation of chemistry and transport, and
represent state of the art 3-D modelling. As a supplement to the 3-D studies 2-D CTMs with detailed gas phase
chemistry will be used to investigate long term effects of aircraft emissions.
In order to improve our understanding of the key processes identified above in the ozone chemistry, and to
perform realistic 3-D estimates of the past, present and future impact on ozone from airplane emissions, a set
of tasks is selected as necessary parts of the work plan. The tasks of the work plan are outlined below.
Task 1. Preparation of data on emissions and background concentrations
An archive of emissions relevant for modelling the impact of aircraft emissions on the chemical composition
of the atmosphere. Starting point will be the AERONOX data base, which contains present day NOx emissions
from aircraft (ANCAT, WSL, NASA), industry and surface traffic, biomass burning, microbial soil production,
lightning, and stratospheric production (degradation of N2O). Furthermore, the data set will be extended in order
to cover also past emissions and future emission scenarios, in particular aircraft emission scenarios.
Task 2. Perform pilot runs to study model performance
A selected number of runs based on a consistent emission data base established under Task 1 will be performed
with the existing models. The goal is to study how the models perform with regard to ozone generation and
ozone distribution in the region of aircraft emissions, the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Current
emission rate for the source gases will be adopted. Two sets of model studies will be performed: one base run
with the current emissions, and with no aircraft emissions, and one run with the current emissions including
todays aircraft emissions. In the base case the model will be run to give the distribution of trace gases for a one
year period.
Task 3. Sensitivity analysis and process studies
The main goal of these studies is to increase our understanding of how key chemical and physical/dynamical
processes after ozone distribution, and how they can be parameterised in 3-D CTMs, thereby increasing our
ability to predict future changes due to aircraft emissions. Task 4. Calculations of ozone changes due to past, present and future aircraft operations
A set of scenarios of emissions and background concentrations of longlived species will be defined and will be
the basis for the model studies by the different modelling groups. The selection of scenarios to be used in the
model runs will be made to best answer the overall objectives of the project.

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