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Satellite and combined satellite-radar techniques in meteorologicalforecasting for flood events

Ziel

This project aims at improvements in rainfall intensity estimates for mitigating the risk of flood events using nowcasting techniques (meteorological satellites, combined satellite-radar data and numerical models). The specific object is to provide the conceptual models and nowcasting procedures for the needs of flood prevention, in the potentially dangerous meteorological situations.

The risk management process implies a sequence of: a) a long term meteorological forecasting (up to 7-10 days,
done by Global Circulation Models), b) a short term forecasting (up to 72 hours, done by Limited Area Models,
LAM), c) a very short term forecasting by observational tools (satellites and radar). The outputs of b) and c)
enter hydrological river basin models d) in form of rainfall rate intensity, which in turn produce warning e) for
final decisions (enforcement of critical dikes, rescue of population, etc.). Recent advances in the nowcasting
techniques allow us now to make a major progress in c). Simultaneous cooperative efforts are also under way
in Cost 78 and ESA/ESTEC. So correct outputs from b) and c) and input in d) are considered crucial steps.
From the analysis of the past flood cases over Europe it is found that potentially dangerous situations are: mid latitude deep cyclones, centered at high latitude (floods of over Netherland and northern Germany), around mid
Europe-Northern France (floods over southern Spain and France, northern Italy and Tuscany); Mesoscale
Convective Complexes during summer (floods over specific areas, e.g. Valtellina case, Italy), Severe storms
(floods over narrow mountain valleys (Alps of France, Italy, Austria); Stationary north-south oriented fronts
persisting on the same area (floods over southern Italy). In each situation conceptual models will be developed,
enlightning some evolutionary characteristics and giving hints for new nowcasting procedures.
The combination of satellite (Meteosat-SSM/I-T2, NOAA-AVHRR), radar observation at the ground (mostly
in network) and LAM simulations gives now an unprecedented tool for improving the rainfall intensity estimates.
this will be done:
- by developing new conceptual models on the evolutionary characteristics of envisaged typical situations (LAS,
FISBAT).
- opitimization of Meteosat and SSMI capabilities, through fronts investigation (MPI), rainfall estimates over
land and sea (DRL), hydrometeor vertical profiles reconstruction and use of mesoscale cloud models (IFA).
- for all these operations the best data base in terms of ground data (radar network, reflectivity profiles from
research radars, raingauges and conventional meteorological radars) are needed. These will be provided by LAS,
UK-Met. Office (Frontiers data) and DRL.

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