CONCERTED PRODUCTION OF MODELS IN A MOUNTAINOUS REGION

Objective

A mountainous region situated in the southern part of the Massif Central, the region of Lozere is representative of the problems encountered in various underdeveloped regions bordering the Mediterranean. The distinctive signs of this type of rural economy include : low population density; undiversified economy based on the cattle raising forestry/tourism trilogy; and a considerable lack of development in most socio-economic indicators. Moreover, this "marginality", compared with the standard of living and development in the rest of the country, gives rise to a strong sense of "Lozerian" identity among the regional population, reinforcing the insular nature of this type of region. With regard to energy, the region is marked by a high level of self-sufficiency, notably linked to the dispersed dwellings and the very widespread use of wood for fires. The region also has a considerable amount of hydro-electricity generation.
The planning experiment in Lozere showed that it was possible to construct a detailed model of regional activity with three purposes :
- to establish a precise picture of energy requirements at present, integrating in an operational and "manipulable" way various gross quantitative data
- to prepare a method of cooperation resulting from the interaction between this model and a group of representatives
- to create a forecasting tool which facilitates decision-making
FOUR SCENARIOS
Four coherent scenarios thus present the practical implications of the "models" representing the various policies responding to levels of varying intensity of agricultural and forestry exploitation, tourism, the development of new industries and activities connected with new technologies. The results of these four hypotheses gave some answers to the problems posed by the development of this region, notably the ability of the various options to ensure full employment.
With regard to energy :
* electricity: regional hydro-electricity generation covers needs in every scenario produced.
* as for wood-energy generation, at the price of hydrocarbon at the end of the 80s, the region already satisfies a major part of its consumption (40% of heating needs) from wood. Increasing this level of self-sufficiency would involve the introduction of specialised "energy" crops which would compete with other choices (tourism, agriculture, cattle-raising). For instance, the necessary threshold of profitability for this option would require a 40% rise in fuel oil prices. It would correspond to the use of 18,000 hectares for the generation of approximately 26,000 toe, and would create about 500 jobs.
Because of its relatively simple economic structure, this kind of region has the advantage of permitting modelling techniques that can later be extended to other more complex units. Moreover, the existence of this asserted "collective identity" enables this model to be compared with the reactions of a group of regional representatives of the various socio-professional categories in the local economy.
This is the direction adopted by the plan (called "Lozere 2010") implemented in this region and based on constant interaction between :
* the functioning of a global economic plan
* the sociological portraits which a group of actors in the local economy (farmers, industrialists, decision-makers, etc.) have of the future of the department.
The aim was to supply regional and departmental officials with instruments to assist in decision-making. With regard to energy, the main objective was to analyse the various scenarios, including development of the wood sector and exploitation of biomass resources.
This approach is based on three basic aspects :
* information, the key to all decision making. Apart from the traditional departmental statistics, the study highlighted the existence at local level of information from a number of varied sources which are still unexploited, notably with regard to the many production activities. An inventory produced in a methodical and exhaustive way, led to the establishment of listed, and in some cases computerised, data bases.
The creation of simulation and choice rationalisation models. To enable decision makers to test regional policies, numerical data was integrated into a global linear optimalisation model comprising more than 130 variables and enabling:
- the various elements of the economic system to be linked
- account to be taken of the rivalry between the various possible uses for resources based on the priorities relating to productive activities. This aspect is essential to assess the energy self-sufficiency scenarios
The introduction of dialogue, integrating the mentalities and human factors present. Questioned about their personal aspirations regarding the future of the department, the selected regional representatives were divided into four sub-groups, each one presenting a different economic development strategy for the year 2000.

Programme(s)

ENG-THERMIE 1 - Programme (EEC) for the promotion of energy technology in Europe (THERMIE), 1990-1994

Topic(s)

Data not available

Call for proposal

Data not available

Funding Scheme

DEM - Demonstration contracts

Coordinator

CNRS - PIRSEM

EU contribution

No data

Address

RUE DU CERF 1
92190 MEUDON
France

Total cost