The value of probabilistic forecasts in the energy market

Projektinformationen

PROFEN

ID Finanzhilfevereinbarung: 502299

Projekt abgeschlossen

Startdatum 1 August 2004

Enddatum 31 Juli 2006

Finanziert unter

• Human resources and Mobility in the specific programme for research, technological development and demonstration "Structuring the European Research Area" under the Sixth Framework Programme 2002-2006

Gesamtkosten € 188 369,00

EU-Beitrag € 188 369,00

Koordiniert durch

FUNDACION CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS ANDALUCES
Spain

Ziel

Deregulation of electricity markets throughout Europe has increased the need for reliable forecasts of demand, supply and spot price. Forecast horizons, ranging from minutes to several years, are required for ensuring system stability, maintenance scheduling and capital planning. A multidisciplinary approach fusing economics, mathematical modelling and statistics is proposed. This approach will combine probabilistic forecasts of weather and economic variables, operating characteristics of the generators, an economic model of the micro-market and a deterministic model of seasonality and holidays. The project's primary objective is the assessment of uncertainty in demand and supply forecasts using state-of-the-art ensemble weather forecasts and economic indicators. This approach is innovative in that the forecasts will incorporate all sources of uncertainty including observational uncertainty, parametrical uncertainty and model uncertainty. Reliable probabilistic forecasts are essential for making decisions and managing risk since the tails of the forecast distribution are required for estimating the likely occurrence of worst-case scenarios. Forecasts of energy production will provide valuable information for the renewable energy sector. The secondary objective is electricity price forecasting using a combination of simulation models for power generation and a statistical model of prices. Accurate forecasts of spot prices are required for pricing energy derivatives and financial risk management.
Forecasts of energy production will provide valuable information for the renewable energy sector. The project will be supported by data and advice from a number of European industrial partners, including electricity generators, distributors and consultants, ensuring that the research directly addresses relevant industrial problems and that the results will be quickly disseminated throughout the European energy sector.

Wissenschaftliches Gebiet

• natural sciences › earth and related environmental sciences › atmospheric sciences › meteorology
• engineering and technology › environmental engineering › energy and fuels › renewable energy
• social sciences › sociology › governance › crisis management
• natural sciences › mathematics › applied mathematics › statistics and probability
• natural sciences › mathematics › applied mathematics › mathematical model

Schlüsselbegriffe

• Probabilistic forecasting
• economy
• risk management
• uncertainty
• utility maximisation
• weather

Programm/Programme

• FP6-MOBILITY - Human resources and Mobility in the specific programme for research, technological development and demonstration "Structuring the European Research Area" under the Sixth Framework Programme 2002-2006

Thema/Themen

• MOBILITY-2.1 - Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowships (EIF)

Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung

FP6-2002-MOBILITY-5
Andere Projekte für diesen Aufruf anzeigen

Finanzierungsplan

EIF - Marie Curie actions-Intra-European Fellowships

Koordinator

FUNDACION CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS ANDALUCES

• EU-Beitrag: Keine Daten
• Adresse: Bailen, 50 ; SEVILLA ; Spanien
• Gesamtkosten: Keine Daten