Objective
Prediction of both natural climate variability and human impact on climate is inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in forecast initial conditions, representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can only be made through ensemble integrations of Earth - System Models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated. For the first time ever, a common ensemble forecast system will be developed for use across a range of timescales (seasonal, decadal, and longer) and spatial scales (global, regional, and local). This model system will be used to construct integrated scenarios of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilisation scenarios. This will provide a basis for quantitative risk assessment of climate change and climate variability, with emphasis on changes in extremes, including changes in storminess and precipitation, and the severity and frequency of drought, and the effects of "surprises", such as the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. Most importantly, the model system will be extensively validated. Hind casts made by the model system for the 20th century will be compared against quality-controlled, high-resolution girded datasets for Europe. Probability forecasts made with the model system on the seasonal and decadal timescales will also be validated against existing data. The exploitation of the results will be maximised by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a wide range of applications. In turn, feedbacks from these impact areas back to the climate system will also be addressed. Thus ENSEMBLES will have a structuring effect on European research by bringing together an unprecedented spectrum of world-leading expertise. This expertise will be mobilised to maintain and extend European pre-eminence in the provision of policy-relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences climatology climatic changes
- natural sciences computer and information sciences software software applications simulation software
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
FP6-2002-GLOBAL-1
See other projects for this call
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Coordinator
EXETER
United Kingdom
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Participants (72)
TOULOUSE
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PARIS
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COPENHAGEN
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READING
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LAXENBURG
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ROME
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201 DE BILT
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BRISTOL
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MUENCHEN
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200 48 THISSION, ATHENS
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NORRKÖPING
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NORWICH
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FRIBOURG
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HAMBURG
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217 READING
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BOLOGNA
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THESSALONIKI
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PO Box 1289K MELBOURNE
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TOULOUSE
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PRAGUE 4 - KOMORANY
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1129 OSLO
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PARIS
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ROMA
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PRAHA 1
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TJELE
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FLORENCE
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OFFENBACH
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PARIS
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PARIS
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ZURICH
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MILANO
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MAJADAHONDA
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503 HELSINKI
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STUTTGART
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BERLIN
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GEESTHACHT
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PRAHA 4
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586 TRIESTE
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KIEL
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285 MADRID
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NEW YORK, NY
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4176 SION 4
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STUTTGART
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BRUSSELS
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LONDON
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LONDON
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43 Blindern OSLO
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514 ZÜRICH
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BERGEN
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BUCHAREST
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BUCHAREST
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POZNAN
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60 12 03 POTSDAM
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BILTHOVEN
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PARIS
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140 HELSINKI
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SANTANDER
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LOUVAIN-LA-NEUVE
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ALBACETE
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1072 Blindern OSLO
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117 LUND
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KASSEL
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LIVERPOOL
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OXFORD
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READING
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GRENOBLE CEDEX
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DUBLIN 9
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BERN
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KIEL
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GENEVE 4
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BILTHOVEN
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AARHUS C
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