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Content archived on 2024-05-28

Overnight Volatility in Financial Markets: Causes and Consequences

Objective

This project consists of four parts, each of which will analyze a different aspect of interbank overnight rate volatility (hereafter “OV”).

In the first part of the project, the implications of OV on longer term interest rates will be investigated. The expectations hypothesis notes that longer-term rates should equal expected future short-term rates plus a term premium. We will look for evidence that OV can affect the term premium embedded in longer-term rates. The analysis will be conducted for the US, Euro Area, and the UK. Cross-country comparisons are essential to identify the impact of OV under different monetary policy frameworks. We expect to find that lower OV in the interbank market leads to a lower term premium by reducing uncertainty, and thus lower longer-term rates for a given setting of the overnight rate.

In the second part of the project, we will focus on the sensitivity of OV to different reserve management regimes by utilizing a dynamic optimization model of daily reserve management. Using this model, we will investigate the implications of alternative reserve management strategies on OV including the reserve management practices at the Fed and the ECB. This way, we will check whether a particular reserve management strategy is preferable in terms of achieving lower OV.

The third part of the project will utilize an interdisciplinary causal search algorithm to investigate the links between OV and broader macroeconomic variables such as the GDP, the price level, and the yield curve in a structural vector auturegression framework.

The last part of the project will develop an intertemporal optimization model to estimate the demand for term deposit facilities and their implications on OV. Term deposit facilities are established by the central banks (Fed, ECB, RBA) during the recent financial crisis. Because of the current nature of these developments, there has not been any work done understanding the functioning of these deposit facilities.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

FP7-PEOPLE-2010-IOF
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

MC-IOF - International Outgoing Fellowships (IOF)

Coordinator

KOC UNIVERSITY
EU contribution
€ 179 477,80
Address
RUMELI FENERI YOLU SARIYER
34450 Istanbul
Türkiye

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Region
İstanbul İstanbul İstanbul
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

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