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Stratospheric Dynamics for Seasonal Prediction

Objective

Seasonal forecasting is a field with enormous potential influence in different socio-economic sectors, such as water resources, agriculture, health, and energy. Yet, surface climate conditions in Europe still represent a hurdle to formulate skillful seasonal predictions. SD4SP aims to improve simulation and prediction of the remote influence of two dominant tropical variability modes in the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); which are the leading modes of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere and stratosphere respectively. ENSO is highly predictable and constitutes the cornerstone of seasonal forecasting. The QBO is well constrained by initialization and has a long persistence, being considered as the most promising source of seasonal forecast quality with ENSO. However, many scientific questions remain unresolved concerning their tropical-extratropical teleconnections, and model systematic errors only worsen the problem. SD4SP will focus on the stratospheric pathway of the ENSO/QBO teleconnections to NAE and pursue gaining insight into the dynamical mechanisms at play. This goal will be undertaken by carrying out an unprecedented set of idealized seasonal forecast experiments to address the contribution of the tropical stratosphere and the polar stratosphere to the prediction skill by suppressing variability in the two stratospheric regions, separately. SD4SP is very timely in helping to reduce model biases and to increase current seasonal forecasting capabilities for the NAE surface climate. The goal of SD4SP is twofold: to identify key sources of predictability and to improve understanding and simulation of the mechanisms responsible for that predictability. SD4SP will bring together theory and applicability disentangling atmospheric teleconnections to satisfactorily exploit them in a seasonal prediction context.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)

Programme(s)

Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.

Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-GF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - Global Fellowships

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2021-PF-01

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Coordinator

FONDAZIONE CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEOSUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 280 202,88
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

No data

Partners (1)

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