Project description
Predicting adaptation surprises in complex human-water systems
Water theft represents a challenge, accounting for more than 30 % of global water supply loss and persisting despite policy efforts. Non-linear adaptive responses by economic agents, particularly irrigators, have complicated efforts to predict feedback loops and anticipate cascading consequences. This dynamic exacerbates water theft, leading to the depletion of water bodies and hindering sustainable development. The ERC-funded WaterTheft project aims to forecast the adaptive behaviour of individual agents over time within complex human-water systems. The project will integrate mathematical programming and experimental economics methods with hydrologic modelling and ensemble experiments. The aim is to be able to consistently and repeatably forecast nonlinear socio-hydrological phenomena emerging over space and time and identify their triggers.
Objective
Water theft claims between 30% and 50% of the global water supply, and despite policy efforts to tackle it, is still on the rise. The policy failure to tackle water theft has been attributed to the nonlinear adaptive responses by economic agents such as irrigators, which can affect and be affected by other socioeconomic (e.g. growing crop prices) and ecological processes (e.g. water scarcity) via feedback loops with cascading impacts that are difficult to foresee. This has led to adaptation surprises with unexpected policy consequences, which have increased rather than reduced water theft, thus depleting water bodies and hampering sustainable development.
Here I aim to break new ground by developing a novel approach to forecast adaptation surprises in complex human-water systems. To this end, I will 1) combine microeconomic mathematical programming models with behavioral economic methods to forecast the nonlinear adaptive responses of individual agents over time; 2) integrate the behavior of individual agents into agent-based models and macroeconomic models to forecast nonlinear spatial trends emerging from human interactions at the local to global level; 3) endogenize these socioeconomic processes into human-water system models to forecast nonlinear socio-hydrological phenomena; and 4) use ensemble experiments to quantify scenario and modeling uncertainties, and forecast nonlinearities that may emerge or be amplified due to issues of model parameterization/structure or scenario design. These innovations will allow me to predict the emergence of nonlinearities and track their impact across coupled human-water systems, thus discovering adaptation surprises and their drivers. Methods will be empirically applied and tested in 3 living labs in Spain, Australia, and the US experiencing water theft.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2023-COG
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28805 Alcala De Henares Madrid
Spain
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