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Close the LOop: Attributing complex climate disaStERs to climatic and to policy changes

Objective

Climate-related extremes are intensifying in many regions due to climate change. Yet, the resulting disasters are not driven by a single factor: they emerge from the interplay of climatic and non-climatic drivers, often compounding and cascading across systems. Current methods cannot disentangle this complexity and thus cannot attribute these disasters to their multiple drivers, nor anticipate their impacts across timescales. This leaves societies unable to respond and adapt effectively. CLOSER advances the attribution and forecasting of climate events and their impacts, including slow-onset phenomena. It captures not only climatic factors, but also drivers such as land-use change, groundwater depletion, changes in exposure and social vulnerability (Fig. 1). For this, it bridges rapid advancements in climate and weather modelling, risk assessment and the socio-economics of disasters with the social sciences of adaptation and policy, from the local to the global scale. In six Case Applications across four continents, CLOSER involves in a co-creation process researchers and key stakeholders: emergency responders, climate services, adaptation planners, impacted economic sectors, intergovernmental and legal organisations. It develops a global, event-specific Knowledge Base of Climate-related Disasters, including harmonized datasets of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, impacts and attributions. Additionally, it design a Protocol for Expanded Attribution and Forecasting that targets climate-related disasters in their past, present and future manifestation, and that includes impacts, their climatic and non-climatic drivers, compound events, and cascading and systemic interactions (Fig.1). This is integrated by a forensic analysis of how policy decisions shape systemic risk and structural inequalities in the face of climate impacts, resulting in Decision-Making Frameworks for Climate Disasters that support communities, agencies and policy makers in real-life challenges.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Keywords

Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)

Programme(s)

Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.

Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) HORIZON-CL5-2025-06

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Coordinator

STICHTING VU
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 180 357,51
Address
DE BOELELAAN 1105
1081 HV Amsterdam
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

No data

Participants (14)

Partners (1)