A prospective estimation of EEC agriculture from the point of view of energy production
This study proposes a prospective economic assessment of the most promising agro-energy lines, to take into account the impact of technical progress in raw material production and transformation. Comparison with data from the conventional energies sector gives a prediction of future profitability should this direction be taken for agriculture. The short term line of heat production based on wood chips obtained from short rotation coppice is the only one which could achieve economic profitability by the year 2000. As regards car fuel production, thermochemical lines using lignocellulosic biomass as raw material (methanol synthesis and above all liquefaction by flash pyrolysis followed by cracking of oil obtained in petrol) appear most promising in the long term. In spite of considerable foreseeable progress, particularly for the lignocellulosic line, ethanol production and vegetable oil ester production are unable to overcome the cost differential currently witnessed with these latter lines. Fuels obtained from biomass (if mass-produced) can be expected to be competitive by the year 2000 only if the price per barrel of oil exceeds 50$, which appears fairly improbable.
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 12102 EN (1989) MF, 113 pp., ECU 8, blow-up copy ECU 5
Record Number: 198910566 / Last updated on: 1994-12-01
Original language: en
Available languages: en