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The paper describes the methodology and the software package developed to assess incident scenarios and consequences for installations where "domino" effects might occur. The methodology is based on the DYLAM approach, which substantially differs from current safety analysis techniques because it is aimed at describing, in self-contained calculations, both the random performance of the systems and the resulting (steady-state and transient) behaviour of the associated physical processes. To this aim the DYLAM code has been adapted to drive and to control the models and algorithms needed to estimate the consequences of the different types of possible accidents. Available models include subroutines to estimate discharge flows, gas dispersion, fires and explosions. The outcomes and the patterns that an incident may take are strongly dependent on variables such as atmospheric conditions, ignition sources, efficiency of protective and mitigating systems, operator control or emergency interventions and other items, which might be of probabilistic nature and, therefore, are treated as random variables. Expected results from the methodology proposed are described with reference to a study case.

Additional information

Authors: LABATH N A, EDRA, Milano (IT);AMENDOLA A, JRC Ispra Estab. (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: 6th International Symposium on "Loss Prevention and Safety Promotion" in the Process Industries, Oslo (NO), June 19-22, 1989
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 33916 ORA
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