Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS

Abstract

Subject of Reference Case II was to test the reaction of final energy consumption in 1990 on lower growth rates of world trade and energy prices. The Reference Case II was performed in running the medium term EC Energy Model (demand part) with a new consistent set of exogenous variables: + volume of world trade + world inflation + exchange rates + energy prices The world trade growth was assumed as 3 percent over the 10 years period. The crude oil price in real terms has a negative growth rate (- 3.5 %) in the first 5 years internal and 1 percent after. As a result, the overall GDP in Europe is growing by 1.79 percent until 1990. Final energy demand will grow then with 1.49 percent a year (736 MTOE in 1990). Oil will have in 1990 a share of 51 percent (53 percent in 1980). Compared to Reference Case I, GDP of Europe (9) is lower, final energy demand is higher by 16 MTOE. Oil demand has the biggest expected difference of all energy products (35 MTOE) because of the low oil price hypotheses.

Additional information

Authors: MISCHKE H, WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);SG2, BRUXELLES (BELGIUM);MISCHKE M, WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);SG2, BRUXELLES (BELGIUM);DELCROIX A WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY), WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);SG2, BRUXELLES (BELGIUM);SG2, BRUXELLES (BELGIUM), WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);SG2, BRUXELLES (BELGIUM)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 8810 EN (1983) MF, 72 P., BFR 120, BLOW-UP COPY BFR 360, EUROFFICE, LUXEMBOURG, POB 1003
Availability: Can be ordered online
Follow us on: RSS Facebook Twitter YouTube Managed by the EU Publications Office Top