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Abstract

The "Updating of the Medium-Term" EC Energy Model and its application for a new "Reference Case" had been the subject of the research work reported here. The updating was necessary in order to include the oil price reactions until 1980 into the parameter estimations. The low world trade assumption together with a trend scenario for the oil price produce low economic growth (2.0 per cent) for the Federal Republic of Germany. Combined with resulting high final energy productivity growth rates, the total final energy demand in the 80's will be about constant (-0.1 per cent is the growth rate). Within the fuel forms, oil is the one that loses importance by 12.5 percentage points. An easy comparison can be done with the result of "Variante C" of the "Gemeinschaftsprognose". The results presented here are lower than "Variante C" by about 8 per cent with identical gross domestic product value in 1990. In general it can be stated that the new Reference Case is a somewhat pessimistic forecast.

Additional information

Authors: MISCHKE H, BATTELLE INSTITUT E.V., FRANKFURT (GERMANY);PUETZSTUECK H BATTELLE INSTITUT E.V., FRANKFURT (GERMANY), BATTELLE INSTITUT E.V., FRANKFURT (GERMANY)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 8957 EN (1984) MF, 35 P., BFR 120, BLOW-UP COPY BFR 175, EUROFFICE, LUXEMBOURG, POB 1003
Availability: Can be ordered online
Record Number: 1989122043800 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Category: PUBLICATION
Available languages: en