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Abstract

Final energy consumption in the European Communities between 1980 and 1990 was the subject of this research project. Running the medium-term EC Energy Model System for this purpose means at first: establishing a consistent set of forecasts for exogenous variables: volume of world trade, world trade inflation, exchange rates and energy prices. As a result of the model system, overall gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe (9) is growing by 2.18 percent between 1980 and 1990, which should be considered as a pessimistic alternative, based on a very high oil price assumption. The GDP growth rates differ from country to country from about 2 percent (Germany, Italy), to about 3 percent (Denmark, Ireland). Overall energy productivity (GDP over final energy) is growing by 0.9 percent in the ten years under consideration. Total final energy consumption for the 9 European countries will develop from 635 MTOE in 1980 to 721 MTOE in 1990 with an average growth rate of 1.27 percent. The final energy elasticity can accordingly be calculated as 0.58. Oil has a share of 53 percent in Europe in 1980. Because of the very high oil price hypothesis, the substitution process between fuel forms results for 1990 in a share for oil of 47 percent.

Additional information

Authors: MISCHKE H, WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);MISCHKE M, WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);DELCROIX A, WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY);AGNEW M WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY), WIRTSCHAFTS- UND SOZIALWISSENSCHAFTLICHES BERATUNGSBUERO, BAD VILBEL (GERMANY)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 8958 EN (1984) MF, 75 P., BFR 120, BLWO-UP COPY BFR 375, EUROFFICE, LUXEMBOURG, POB 1003
Availability: Can be ordered online
Record Number: 1989122057500 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Category: PUBLICATION
Available languages: en