R&D PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty pervades the whole field of energy planning: it is particularly relevant in R&D decision problems which involve long-term horizons. Because of this one can expect that the scenario approach, commonly found for treating situations of uncertainty will prove inadequate for dealing with energy R&D projects. In particular it is likely that equally plausible assumptions can be made on future parameters that may lead to drastically different conclusions about the viability of new technologies. This paper reports on a feasibility study on the use of statistical decision analysis for exploring R&D energy planning problems. We depart from the pure scenario approach which examines the advantages of a given technology under different assumptions and consider a decision tree where we structure the set of possible R&D decisions and random events relevant for the technologies considered. Each path of the tree corresponds to a usual scenario which is then studied by a deterministic model. The value of the objective function of themodel is used for evaluating the terminal modes of the tree which is then analyzed by the usual methods of statistical decision analysis.
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 9196 EN, VOL.1, (1984) MF, 96 P., BFR 120, BLOW-UP COPY BFR 480, EUROFFICE, LUXEMBOURG, POB 1003
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Record Number: 1989122101000 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Available languages: en