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Abstract

A simulation model of hydrogen as an energy vector in competition with other fuels has been constructed and run for the countries UK, France and the Netherlands for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015. Input estimates were derived from published information and entered to the model as probability distributions. Using the AUQ (analysis with uncertain quantities) technique developed at Fulmer, the model computes output quantities for a large number of trials and provides results in the form of probability distributions. The major results of the modelling are the probabilities of hydrogen being used as an energy vector. This probability is less than 0.4 until the year 2000, but approaches 0.6 by the year 2025. If any hydrogen is used as an energy vector, the expectation of the proportion of total energy demand supplied by hydrogen reaches about 15 % by 2025. The major demands for hydrogen in this case are as road and air transport fuels. Otherwise, little hydrogen is used as an energy vector. The major supply side results of the modelling are the expectations that no hydrogen will be produced by electrolysis and that the current steam reforming processes (of methane and naphtha) will be supplemented by partial oxidation of coal and residual oil and methane catalysis from about the year 2000. The major hydrogen supply process will be methane catalysis by 2025.

Additional information

Authors: DAVIES D G S, FULMER RESEARCH LABORATORIES LTD., SLOUGH (UK);LENEL U R, FULMER RESEARCH LABORATORIES LTD., SLOUGH (UK);MOORE M A FULMER RESEARCH LABORATORIES LTD., SLOUGH (UK), FULMER RESEARCH LABORATORIES LTD., SLOUGH (UK)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 9313 EN, VOL. I AND II (1984) MF, 401 P., BFR 600, BLOW-UP COPY BFR 2005, EUROFFICE, LUXEMBOURG, POB 1003
Availability: Can be ordered online
Record Number: 1989123004600 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Category: PUBLICATION
Available languages: en
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