ANALYSIS OF MEDIUM TERM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION THROUGH THE EURECA - EXPLOR - EDM MODEL CHAIN - REFERENCE CASE (II)
The complete evaluation of the macroeconomic forecast generated by the Eureca model for 1985 and 1990 necessitate comparison with short-term (1983-4-5) forecasts and with the present economic situation. The country focused on in this report is Italy. Economic situation assessments for 1982 and forecasts for 1983 - 1985 by various institutions are given, then the cases one and two of the EEC macroeconomic forecast are discussed in relation to the course of Italian economy. Among the points raised: case two's forecast for the development of oil prices and of sectors of industrial production are considered to be more correct; for 1985 and 1990, Italy's steel sector is expected to grow more slowly than cases one/two suggest; given the trend in Italy towards reduced elasticity in energy consumption versus GNP, the swing represented in the values presented in cases one/two is considered too high.
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 8973 EN (1984) MF, 35 P., BFR 120, BLOW-UP COPY BFR 175, EUROFFICE, LUXEMBOURG, POB 1003
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Record Number: 1989123078800 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Available languages: en