THE MODELLING OF NATURAL PROCESSES. A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH IN THE ASSESSMENT OF RADIONUCLIDE TRANSFER IN THE GEOSPHERE AND BIOSPHERE
In the present paper an attempt is made to rank the degree of uncertainty affecting the biosphere parameters by comparing with the uncertainties usually admitted for the geosphere parameters. The specific exercise consists of a global sensitivity analysis for a test case scenario, in which radionuclides are supposed to migrate through both geosphere and biosphere. The relative importance of the two sets of parameters (biosphere and geosphere) is analyzed by replacing one at a time the set of distributions with a set of single (deterministic i.e.) values. A comparison is made with the general case and the results are discussed. At present output from probabilistic type models allow an estimation of the variability of the natural system and is a practical way of combining the uncertainties which are intrinsic in the system being modelled and in the input data.
Bibliographic Reference: SEMINAR ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSFER TO MAN OF RADIONUCLIDES RELEASED FROM NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS, BRUXELLES (BELGIUM), OCT. 17-21, 1983 VOL. II, PP. 489-499 WRITE TO CEC LUXEMBOURG, DG XIII/A2, POB 1907 MENTIONING PAPER E 31218 ORA
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Record Number: 1989124018600 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Available languages: en