MERGING PREDICTION MODELLING AND OPERATING EXPERIENCE BY MEANS OF SYSTEM RESPONSE ANALYZER AND EUROPEAN RELIABILITY DATA BANK SYSTEMS
This paper describes a combined data collection, systems and data analysis methodology which merges the experience and knowledge gained in these two fields in an interactive reliability analysis. The predictive modelling is iteratively improved and modified by the feedback given by the operating experience at level of components as well as sequences and, simultaneously, the reported event sequences (and isolated steps of sequences) are assessed in terms of their contribution to the overall probability of failure. The objective is to formulate a sound and appropriate tool to be applied by designer and safety analyst for designing and studying the behaviour of systems in the context of the actual scenarios of possible occurrences and interaction with human operators, and to assess the safety significance of operational experience. In the following, the methodology is discussed with reference to the case of nuclear power plant safety functions, and then a propedeutical example is given, using two of the ERDS (European Reliability Data Bank Systems) banks, i.e. AORS (Abnormal Occurrences Reporting System) and CEDB (Component Event Data Bank), for the data relative to incidental sequences and component malfunctions, respectively, and SRA (Systems Response Analyser) methodology for the theoretical analysis.
Bibliographic Reference: FOURTH EUROPEAN SYMPOSIUM ON SYSTEM SAFETY, DEAUVILLE (FRANCE), JUNE 4-6, 1986 WRITE TO CEC LUXEMBOURG, DG XIII/A2, POB 1907 MENTIONING PAPER E 32702 ORA
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Record Number: 1989125003000 / Last updated on: 1987-01-01
Available languages: en