UNCERTAINTIES IN SYSTEMS RELIABILITY MODELLING - INSIGHT GAINED THROUGH EUROPEAN BENCHMARK EXERCISES
Uncertainty ranges associated with systems reliability evaluations take generally into account the mere contributions of the spread in the probability parameters of the events considered in the analysis. As the results of Benchmark Exercises performed in Europe have shown modelling uncertainties may overwhelm data uncertainties. In addition to controversial areas (such as "common cause failures" and "human factors") other sources of uncertainties arise from the fact that analyst's judgement in the use of the data and available information introduces a significant and not-eliminable degree of subjectivity in the reliability assessments. This, however, does not affect the validity of methodology and analysis results, provided that these are consistently used with respect to the decisional process for which they have been produced.
Bibliographic Reference: NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND DESIGN, VOL. 93 (1986), PP. 215-225
Record Number: 1989125014300 / Last updated on: 1987-02-01
Available languages: en