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In nuclear safety studies the need for formal elicitation of expert judgements arises because of the lack of data and experience, the need to adapt model results to the specific circumstances of a plant, and the large uncertainties surrounding the events and quantities that characterise an accident sequence. About 30 safety issues have been quantified using expert judgements about probabilities of various uncertain events and quantities, ranging from the failure of a check valve in the cooling system to the pressure built up due to hydrogen production to release fractions of various radionuclides. In total, some 1000 probability distributions are elicited from some 50 experts. This paper first describes the methodology of formal expert elicitation. Subsequently, it describes the overall approach of NUREG 1150 and provides an example of the elicitation of the probability of a bypass failure in a pressurised water reactor.

Additional information

Authors: VON WINTERFELDT, Institute of Safety and Systems Management, University of California (US) and JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 12488 EN (1989) 41 pp., MF, ECU 4, blow-up copy ECU 6.25
Availability: (2)
Record Number: 199010354 / Last updated on: 1994-12-01
Original language: en
Available languages: en