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The paper discusses how "real time" data of airborne radioactivity can be used to optimise predictions of the evolution of a radioactive cloud. The developed concepts are worked out using a simple trajectory model and radiological data generated after the Chernobyl accident. It is shown that a 5-day prediction of the cloud's centre of mass improved in accuracy by several hundreds of kilometers if the prediction is updated after 3 days, based on environmental data that became available every 24 hours during these three days. The results indicate that even simple transport models are potentially useful for the prediction of the evolution of a cloud, when they are properly interfaced with real-time environmental data.

Additional information

Authors: RAES F, JRC Ispra (IT);ZARIMPAS N, JRC Ispra (IT);GRAZIANI G, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: Real-time Modelling Workshop, Luxembourg (LU), May 16-19, 1989
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 35136 ORA
Record Number: 199010601 / Last updated on: 1994-12-01
Original language: en
Available languages: en
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