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The regulation and management of hazardous industrial activities must rely increasingly upon the use of expert judgement to provide wisdom in areas of science and technology where traditional methods are, in practice, unable to supply unambiguous "facts". Although expert judgements have always played a significant, if sometimes unrecognised role in analysis, recent trends have aimed at making them formal, explicit and documented, so they may be identified and reviewed by others. This paper proposes four categories of expert judgement and uses a description of three case studies as the background for a discussion of the pitfalls commonly encountered.

Additional information

Authors: OTWAY H, JRC Ispra (IT);VON WINTERFELDT D, Institute for Safety and Systems Management, University of Southern California, Los Angeles (US)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: SRA Conference: Risk Analysis, Standards and Abnormal Occurrences, Laxenburg (AT), April 2-3, 1990
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 35202 ORA
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