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This paper continues the work previously performed on the use of models in conjunction with monitoring data to predict the evolution of the radioactive cloud created in a nuclear accident. Using a trajectory model and the Chernobyl data base of airborne Cs-137, it is shown that the forecasts of trajectories improve substantially, if they are interfaced with monitoring data as they become available. The limitation of the first study was mainly due to the fact that the trajectory model did not allow the evaluation of concentration values and, therefore, no quantitative comparison with the monitoring data could be performed. The trajectories used were calculated using the UK Met. Office fine mesh wind fields. The present study uses a comprehensive transport and diffusion model which has been developed at Ispra. In view of a future connection between JRC Ispra and ECMWF, the analysed wind field data from the latter source were used. The quantification of the improvements in the forecasted field concentration has been calculated, making use of some of the statistical parameters used in the atmospheric transport model performances studies.

Additional information

Authors: TASSONE C, JRC Ispra (IT);GRIPPA G, JRC Ispra (IT);RAES F, JRC Ispra (IT);GRAZIANI G, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: Methods and Codes for Assessing the Off-site Consequences of Nuclear Accidents, Athens (GR), June 7-11, 1990 June 1990
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 35442 ORA
Record Number: 199011067 / Last updated on: 1994-12-01
Original language: en
Available languages: en