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In this paper a simple and transparent consequence model for various class 2 substances (e.g. chlorine, ammonia and LPG) and class 3 substances (e.g. gasoline) is proposed. The basic assumption of the model is that the number of fatalities from a given release will increase with an increased amount of substance released - the fatality index concept. The parameters for the model can be estimated from historical accident data on releases, and avoid a large number of assumptions necessary in traditional consequence models. The model proposed estimates consequences for three different population density classes: rural, semi-urban (or industrial) and urban. Unfortunately, the accident data do not permit this estimate, and the overall average of the fatality index is therefore used as a first approximation for semi-urban areas. The fatality index for the other two classes is estimated, based on population density statistics.

Additional information

Authors: BROCKHOFF L H, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Chemical Engineering, Lyngby (DK);PETERSEN H J S, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Chemical Engineering, Lyngby (DK)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: Risk of Transporting Dangerous Goods, Toronto (CA), April 6-8, 1992
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 36587 ORA
Record Number: 199210652 / Last updated on: 1994-12-02
Original language: en
Available languages: en