A system for using the air radioactivity measurements in a long range model to forecast cloud evolution
The possibility of obtaining a real gain in the use of real-time monitoring data for updating the predictions of long range atmospheric transport models has been demonstrated previously. The approach was based on the hypothesis that the major source of uncertainties in long range atmospheric models lies in the windfield (and rainfield) forecasting errors. Therefore, once the measured concentration field becomes available after a release, a function describing that field is fitted to it and it is used as an area source for generating new predictions on the cloud evolution. Since then, some improvements have been made in some of the items on which the success of this updating procedure depends, namely: (i) the capability of a long range transport model to produce reasonable forecasts of the concentration field in a short time; (ii) the scheme for interpolating monitored data; (iii) the visualisation of the radioactivity measurements available and of the comparison with the calculation results; (iv) the rapid transfer of data (both radiological and meteorological) as soon as they become available. These improvements have been built into the software package LORAN, in an interactive procedure that allows an expert user to control the execution of a predictive model and the graphic treatment of input and output data. LORAN works on a PC and can be readily used in real-time in case of an accidental release.
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: 3rd International Workshop on Decision Making Support for Off-site Emergency Management, Schloss Elmau (DE)
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 37212 ORA
Record Number: 199211459 / Last updated on: 1994-11-29
Original language: en
Available languages: en