Marine transport of dangerous goods : Risk assessment based on historical accident dataFunded under: JRC-ENVPROT 6C
This paper surveys marine transport of dangerous goods on the basis of 151 accident case histories. Accident frequencies are estimated for the different accident types (collisions, groundings, fire/explosions and structural damage) in the range 0.001 to 0.02 per ship per year. Further estimates of the probabilities of spillage of at least 100 tons of cargo and/or fatalities in connection with the accidents have been made. The consequences, measured in number of fatalities, were compared for each cargo type (oils and chemicals) and it was shown that accidents involving oils were twice as frequent as accidents involving chemicals. However, the distribution of number of fatalities seems to be similar for the two types of goods. In relation to the local surroundings (port, coastal waters and open sea) it was shown that most accidents, with both small and large consequences, happen in coastal waters. The sizes of the spills have been modelled by linear regression based on accident type and the size of the ship. Fairly good correlation between the spill size and the size of the tanker is shown for groundings, structural damage and fire or explosions.
Bibliographic Reference: Article: Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Vol. 6 (1993) No. 4, pp. 219-225
Record Number: 199410204 / Last updated on: 1994-11-28
Original language: en
Available languages: en