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Abstract

The analysis of uncertainties aims to quantify the uncertainty in model based forecasts by characterising the empirical distribution of the possible results of the model itself. In analysing the sensitivity of the model, the aim is to establish which entry parameters have greater influence on the result and its degree of uncertainty. This report presents two applications of these techniques, both of which relate to problems of global change linked to the sulphur cycle: the first deals with the dynamic model of IMAD aerosol, and the second deals with the kinetics of oxidation of dimethylsulphide (DMS), an important precursor of aerosols, and an important constituent part, therefore, of the cloud cycle.

Additional information

Authors: SALTELLI A, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: Giornata di Studio su Statistica ed Ambiente, Campobasso (IT), May 7, 1994
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper IT 38356 ORA
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