Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS


The seriousness and complexity of the occurrence of malaria are likely to be affected by an anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The MOZ (Malaria Potential Occurrence Zone) model focuses on the climatic determinants of malaria parasites and vectors life cycle. It does not take epidemiology into account. Under the climate changes predicted by five general atmospheric circulation models, the extent and the intensity of potential transmission change significantly. All show an increase in seasonal malaria at the expense of perennial malaria. Unfortunately the former is more likely to cause epidemics among non-immune populations. If climate change also were to trigger mass migration of environmental refugees, malaria could spread to higher latitudes and become a public health problem for developed as well as developing countries.

Additional information

Authors: MARTIN P H, JRC Ispra (IT);LEFEBURE M G, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Article: AMBIO
Record Number: 199511131 / Last updated on: 1995-08-22
Original language: en
Available languages: en