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The concept of adaptation is nowadays recognised as one of the dominant features of the evolution of systems resulting from human activities. In this study, we show for the first time that this concept can be applied to the field of future studies by means of an evolutionary optimisation technique, namely the generic algorithm. This approach allows the consideration of the actors of a system as artificial intelligent agents testing various possible moves and selecting the ones more adapted, at a give time, respectively, to their own objectives. In addition, the use of this adaptive method for complex human systems is assessed through an application to the future of urban transport, using a simplified, though realistic, description. Results regarding the future evolution of urban transport along with the assessment of this method and some proposed further developments, are given.

Additional information

Authors: CANARELLI P, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 16296 EN (1995) 77 pp., FS, free of charge
Availability: Available from Joint Research Centre, Public Relations and Publications Unit, I-21020 Ispra (Va.) (IT)
Record Number: 199511277 / Last updated on: 1995-11-23
Original language: en
Available languages: en
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