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This report presents a method for systematic error/event analysis and reliability prediction that is based on the principle of distinguishing clearly between phenotypes (manifestations or error modes) and genotypes (causes). A number of representative error analysis approaches are analysed. It is found that traditional Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) approaches use a simple classification scheme, but have only weak links to a model of cognition. Information processing approaches can produce detailed explanations in terms of mental processes, but are weak in accounting for causes that have their origin in the working environment. While cognitive approaches may avoid both problems, they are still under development. The report describes the basis of a specific approach that is based on a nonhierarchical, bidirectional classification scheme, and which therefore can be used for both performance analysis and performance prediction. The basis of the classification scheme is described in detail, and the classification groups are documented in an appendix. The methods for event analysis and performance prediction are presented as step-by-step guidelines. The application of the phenotype-genotype approach is illustrated by two examples.

Additional information

Authors: HOLLNAGEL E, Human Reliability Associates Ltd., Dalton (GB);MARSDEN P, Human Reliability Associates Ltd., Dalton (GB)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 16463 EN (1996) 88pp., FS
Availability: Available from the Public Relations and Publications Unit, JRC Ispra, I-21020 Ispra (IT), Fax: +39-332-785818
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