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Abstract

This two volume document summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes; the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels; the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer; short biographies of the experts; and the aggregated results of their responses.

Additional information

Authors: US NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION, Division of Systems Technology, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington (US);CEC (EDITORS), CEC Bruxelles (BE)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 16771 EN (1997) 406pp., FS, free of charge
Availability: Available from the DG XII Documentation Centre, European Commission, 200 rue de la Loi, B-1049 Bruxelles (BE), Fax: +32-2-2969823
ISBN: ISBN 92-827-6701-9
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