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The paper describes the starting points of the development of a general methodology devoted to risk management of complex systems based on the use of belief networks (BN) and influence diagrams (ID). The objective of the methodology is to exploit the knowledge resulting from activities such as probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) and safety cases, which are carried out during design and construction phases of complex system life cycle, to support risk management during system operational phases. The first step of the approach is the transformation of an event tree (ET) into a BN and the resolution of the BN probabilistic data supplied by fault trees (FT) as prior probabilities. Using the BN, other influences than those considered during FT-ET analysis, such as detected faults, control and maintenance operations, can be easily added to the network to complete and update the knowledge of the system. The resolution method and the implementation into STARS software tool are investigated.

Additional information

Authors: VIVALDA C, Marine Division, Bureau Veritas Paris, Courbevoie (FR);CARPIGNANO A, Dipartimento di Energetica, Politecnico di Torino (IT);NORDVIK J P, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: ESREL'97, Lisboa (PT), June 17-20, 1997
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 40378 ORA
Record Number: 199711646 / Last updated on: 1997-12-09
Original language: en
Available languages: en