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The effect of aggregation of simulation results on the prediction of national total wheat yield of France was examined using five prediction models. Three of these models were combinations of trend functions and averages. The other two, an additive and a multiplicative model applied to crop growth simulation results in combination with a trend function. The simulation results were aggregated to sub-regional, regional and national level and subsequently introduced, in combination with the estimated planted area, in the prediction models. The prediction results were compared with official yield statistics. The study demonstrates that aggregation of the simulation results affects the prediction results. Better results are obtained when the predictions are executed at regional or sub-regional level. The multiplicative model performed best.

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Authors: SUPIT I, JRC Ispra (IT);VAN DER GOOT E, JRC Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: Article: Agricultural Systems or Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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