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  • The application of aeropalynological methods to the early forecast of European wine, olive oil and citrus fruit production: From a local to a national forecast


Early harvest forecasts can be made approximately three months before picking based on a reliable and reproducible technique for sampling and analyzing atmospheric pollen movements. The laboratory results used must, however, be validated by an agronomic survey. In this paper, the results obtained since 1989 in a network of some fifty observation sites in different countries of the European Commission research programme are presented. The proposed method can be used to make valid forecasts for the sample zones, and at national and Community levels. On a local scale, the method provides satisfactory results in approximately 50% of cases. The effect of postfloral conditions, which can significantly affect the potential present at flowering, is the main cause of the differences recorded. It is therefore essential to update the first early forecasts from the pollen analysis by means of agrometeorological models during the year. On a national scale, the results are satisfactory if a large enough number of pollen traps are operational. Furthermore, the dates of the flowering period can be precisely determined by monitoring the evolution of the pollen emission curve.

Additional information

Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: IAA Quadriennial Congress, Perugia (IT), August 31 - September 5, 1998
Availability: Available from (1) as Paper EN 41632 ORA
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