Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS

Abstract

The work described in this paper is conducted in the context of the Lot 14 project financed by EUROSTAT the Statistical Office of the European Commission. The project involves the evaluation of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis methods in the quality assessment framework with application to environmental statistics. The main objective of the project is to ascertain the improvement that can be achieved using sensitivity/uncertainty analysis in measuring the quality of statistics as well as to test recent sensitivity/uncertainty methodologies for the management of uncertainties on case studies relevant to the needs of EUROSTAT. One interesting case study is the quality assessment of the process used to build environmental indices, which are essential for decizion-making.
A worked example related to the use of environmental indices for policy-making has been carried out. Uncertainty analysis has been successfully employed for testing the robustness of the process when various sources of uncertainty ( the factors ) play simultaneously.An innovative method of sensitivity analysis,developed at the JRC, has been used to reveal at what extent the factors affect the pressure-to-decizion index.The sensitivity analysis is used for grouping the factors according to different logical structures. This tool appears adequate in helping the analyst reducing the uncertainty in the model output below reasonable levels. This increases the likelihood that a certain policy could be implemented.

Additional information

Authors: TARANTOLA S, JRC ISIS (IT);SALTELLI A, JRC ISIS (IT);JESINGHAUS J, EUROSTAT - EUROPEAN COMMIZION (LU);PUOLAMAA M, EUROSTAT - EUROPEAN COMMIZION (LU)
Bibliographic Reference: Paper presented: International Seminar on new techniques and technologies for Statistics, Sorrento (IT), November 4-6th, 1998
Availability: Available from DG XIII as Paper EN 41899 ORA
Record Number: 199910294 / Last updated on: 1999-03-12
Category: PUBLICATION
Original language: en
Available languages: en