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Abstract

This project has developed a methodology for evaluating the probable global and local effects of climate change due to atmospheric emissions. The plan is to use indicators such as biodiversity changes, agricultural productivity and human welfare to assess the likely damage. The impacts identified as being most significant include sea level rise, extreme weather events, crop failure, unreliable water resources and ecosystem disturbance. The project will concentrate on establishing the effect of these and the extent to which countermeasures should be taken. Extensive analysis of uncertainties is also being done, as the extremely complex systems involved make possible errors very large. It has been agreed that it would be unwise to underestimate future damages due to overconfidence in current knowledge, so a range of different scenarios representing different extents of climate change are being assessed. The results from the project should eventually help establish effective policies for protecting ecosystems and coastlines, facilitate the development of public health and education programmes and alert organizations to the need to evaluate the future costs of climate change.

Additional information

Authors: EYRE N, Eyre Energy Environment (GB);DOWNING T, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford (GB);HOEKSTRA R, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford (GB);RENNINGS K, Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim (DE);TOL R S J, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (NL)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 18836 EN (1998) 194 pp.
Availability: Available from the European Commission
ISBN: ISBN 92-828-6419-7
Record Number: 200012179 / Last updated on: 2000-09-20
Category: PUBLICATION
Original language: en
Available languages: en
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