Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS


This document is a guide for using structured expert judgment to quantify uncertainty in quantitative models. The methods applied here have been developed by a host of researchers over the last 30 years. From 1990 to 1999, the European Commission and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission undertook a joint uncertainty study of accident consequence codes for nuclear power plants using structured expert judgment. The purpose was not only to perform an uncertainty analysis of the US accident consequence code MACCS and the European accident consequence code Cosyma. The wider purpose was to form a baseline for the state of the art in using structured expert judgment for quantifying uncertainty. The reports emerging from this work are intended for use outside the community of nuclear accident consequence modelling. Indeed, the quantification of uncertainty in the modelling of dispersion, deposition, food chain transport and cancer induction may be used in many fields of environmental modelling and health protection. In the same spirit, the methods for using structured expert judgment to quantify uncertainty are applicable far beyond the accident consequence modelling community.

Additional information

Authors: COOKE R, Delft University of Technology, Delft, (NL);GOOSENS L, Delft University of Technology, Delft, (NL)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 18820 EN (2000) 74pp, Euro: 11.50
Availability: Available from the European Commission, DG XII Communication Unit, rue de la Loi/Wetstraat 200, B-1049 Bruxelles (BE) Tel: +32-2-2951589 Fax:+32-2-2958220
ISBN: ISBN 92-894-0111-7
Record Number: 200012966 / Last updated on: 2000-12-18
Original language: en
Available languages: en