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This paper describes a study that is being carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), in which an urban growth model is being applied to satellite-derived geographic databases of land use and transport networks, in order to assess the likely impact of current spatial plans and policies on future land use development. The study is being carried out for selected study areas in the European Union as part of the JRC's MOLAND project for monitoring urban and regional land use development in Europe. In this paper, an overview of the MOLAND project is first provided. Then, the urban growth model that has been developed as part of MOLAND is described, and examples of the results of its application are presented. Finally, an analysis that is being carried out as part of MOLAND, of the impact of urban expansion on the spatial structure (i.e. fragmentation) of urban landscapes, is described. Work is continuing on applying the method of fragmentation analysis developed in MOLAND to the output urban landscapes predicted by the urban growth.

Additional information

Authors: MCCORMICK N ET AL, JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (IT)
Bibliographic Reference: An oral report given at: The IEEE/ISPRS Joint Workshop Urban 2001. Held in: Rome (IT), 8-9 November 2001
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