Creation of a hydrological model of the Avon catchment using LISFLOOD, for the assessment of land use and climate change scenarios
The creation of a hydrologic model of the river Avon catchment, using the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) software LISFLOOD, has produced some interesting findings about hydrological conditions in the area. Input data and model calibration have resulted in a reasonable quality of simulations and a set of scenarios has been created to look at the effects of land use and climate change in the Avon catchment. The results show that the expansion of urban areas in the catchment will not have major effects on the flow rates of the river as discharge rates increase between 1.7 - 8.5 cubic metres per second.. During generally wet months the discharge increase is minimal, however in dry months and with the occurrence of cloudbursts and heavy rainfall events, river discharge can be increased considerably. Afforestation above 150m of elevation in the catchment area resulted in minimal discharge decreases, between 0.3 - 1.3 cubic metres per second, however further investigation is needed on this matter, as poor quality of input evapotranspiration data could have led to misleading results. Overall, afforestation is not a preferred technique for decreasing discharge rates for flood prevention. However the increase of trees in the catchment area has resulted in a change of the total annual water balance of the catchment, increasing water availability even in dry summer periods. Finally the effects of increased total annual rainfall by 15% has been investigated resulting in a simulated discharge increase between 6.5 - 8.5 cubic metres per second.
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 20971 EN (2003), 51pp. Free of charge
Availability: Available from European Commission, JRC Knowledge Management Unit, Ispra (IT) Tel: +39 033278 9843 or +39 033278 9864 Fax: +39 033278 9623 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Record Number: 200317225 / Last updated on: 2003-12-19
Original language: en
Available languages: en